College Baseball 360 Final 2011 Composite National Rankings

June 2, 2011
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The final update of the CB360 16-element Composite National Rankings (CNR) – to include all of the final polls and RPI - ended up being a fairly accurate indicator of how the NCAA Tournament played out. CB360′s earlier NCAA projection, based on the CNR and released early the morning of May 30, did not include some of these final polls and RPI.  front-page photo courtesy of Florida

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Here’s how the final CNR compared to the 64-team NCAA field:

* 7 of the top-8 teams in the CNR ended up being in the NCAA top-8 seeds (all but #8 seed Rice; the CNR had Texas A&M in the #8 spot) … the CNR and NCAA seeds matched up at #1 (Virginia), #2 (Florida) and #4 South Carolina … CNR #3 Vanderbilt and #5 North Carolina ended up with the opposite national seeds (VAN #5, UNC #3), while CNR #6 Texas is the #7 NCAA seed and CNR #7 Florida State the #6 seed.

* 15 of the CNR top-16 ended up being among the 16 Regional #16 seeds … the only difference was a fairly close call, as CNR #16 Arkansas did not get a #1 spot (which instead went to a surging UCLA team that has bumped up to #19 in the CNR).

* The 16 teams in the CNR second tier (#17-#32) ended up producing 12 of the 16 teams that are #2 Regional seeds – with the lone exceptions being CNR #19 UCLA (which was a #1 seed) and three teams that dropped down to #3 Regional seeds: #26 UC Irvine, #30 Kent State and #32 Coastal Carolina.

* The 14 teams in the CNR range of #33-#46 ended up producing 10 of the eventual #3 Regional seeds, all except three that were #2 seeds (#36 Texas State, #37 Oklahoma State and #39 Baylor), plus a CNR #35 LSU that was not selected to the NCAAs.

* At the end of the day, the CNR cutoff for NCAA at-large selections was at #46 and LSU was the only team not selected for the NCAAs (among those top-46) – while St. John’s was the only team outside the CNR top-46 that ended up with at-large berth … the bottom-4 teams in the CNR top-50 – #47 Cal State Bakersfield, #48 Mississippi, #49 Oregon and #50 Elon – all were considered among the teams that narrowly missed a spot in the NCAAs (along with LSU).

. . .

The final CNR update saw Virginia (#4 the previous week) return to the top spot that it had held for nearly all of April and May, while the three tightly-grouped SEC teams shuffled spots (Florida from #3 to #2; Vanderbilt from #3 to #2; and South Carolina from #2 to #4). The #5-6-7-10 teams – North Carolina, Texas, Florida State and Cal State Fullerton – retained their CNR positions, while Arizona State dropped a spot (#8 to #9) and fellow Pac-10 team Oregon State fell out of the top-10 (#9 to #15). See more CNR notes below …

Three teams that ended up in the top-30 of the final CNR update – #23 Florida International, #25 Creighton and #28 East Carolina – were pleasant surprises, after not being included in the CNR presason top-50. Other teams that made big jumps from their preseason CNR position to the final update included: Oregon State (#44 to #15), North Carolina (#30 to #5), Southern Mississippi (#46 to #21), Central Florida (#47 to #29) and even Virginia (#15 to #1).

The most noteworthy teams in the preseason CNR top-50 that ended up outside the final top-50 include: Auburn (preseason CNR #22), College of Charleston (#26) and Louisville (#27). Other teams that fell far short of their preseason CNR position: Oregon (#11 preseason, #49 final), UCLA (#1 to #19), LSU (#19 to #35), California (#24 to #38), Baylor (#25 to #39) and Oklahoma (#5 to #17).

CLICK HERE & then scroll down for previous CNR releases (which include full description, with links, for the CNR formula).

CNR Contact: Pete LaFleur (pete@collegebaseball360.com)

CNR TOP-50 CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (week-15)
SEC (9 … 3 top-10, 4 top-25) – #2 Florida, #3 Vanderbilt, #4 South Carolina, , #16 Arkansas, #34 Georgia, #35 LSU, #42 Mississippi State, #43 Alabama & #48 Mississippi
ACC (7 … 3 top-10, 6 top-25) – #1 Virginia, #5 North Carolina, #7 Florida State, #11  Clemson, #12 Georgia Tech, #18 Miami & #40 North Carolina State
Pacific-10 (7 … 1 top-10, 4 top-25) – #9 Arizona State, #15 Oregon State, #19 UCLA, #22 Stanford, #27 Arizona, #38 California & #49 Oregon
Big 12
(6 … 2 top-10, 3 top-25) – #6 Texas, #8 Texas A&M, #17 Oklahoma, #37 Oklahoma State, #39 Baylor & #44 Kansas State
Conference USA
(4 … 2 top-25) – #13 Rice, #21 Southern Mississippi, #28 East Carolina & #29 Central Florida
2 Each
– Atlantic Sun (#31 Stetson & #45 Jacksonville) … Big West (#10 Cal State Fullerton & #26 UC Irvine) … independent (#41 Dallas Baptist & #47 Cal State Bakersfield) … Sunbelt (#23 Florida International & #33 Troy)
1 Each – BIG EAST (#24 Connecticut) … Big South (#32 Coastal Carolina) … Colonial (#46 James Madison) … Mid-American (#30 Kent State) … Missouri Valley (#25 Creighton) … Mountain West (#14 TCU) … Southern (#50 Elon) … Southland (#36 Texas State) … Western Athletic (#20 Fresno State)

BIGGEST JUMPS IN THE CNR TOP-50 – Georgia (#45 to #34) … Creighton (#32 to #25) … Texas State (#42 to #36) … Kansas State (#50 to #44)

RETURNERS TO THE CNR TOP-50 – #46 James Madison,… #47 Cal State Bakersfield … #49 Oregon

DROPPED OUT OF THE CNR TOP-50 – #44 Auburn … #36 East Tennessee … #48 Florida Atlantic

BIGGEST DROPS IN THE CNR Top-50 – Elon (#39 to #50) … California (#28 to #38) … Troy (#27 to #33)

College Baseball 2011 Composite National Rankings #16 (CNR)
courtesy of CollegeBaseball360.com;  June 1, 2011

RANKTEAMPOINTSWEEK-14WEEK-13WEEK-12WEEK-11WEEK-10WEEK-9WEEK-8Week-7Week-6Week-5Week-4Week-3Week-2Week-12011 Preseason
1Virginia97.904111111112411131415
2Florida97.04324443223111122
3Vanderbilt96.32142234332322234
4South Carolina94.57233322444654579
5North Carolina92.95599101165810141516212330
6Texas91.506688129111312710121166
7Florida State91.14757691097753561012
8Texas A&M90.65111112116766681317151514
9Arizona State88.5488555128554867810
10Cal State Fullerton88.1510121312105712111711710118
11Clemson87.771415161922252627221698897
12Georgia Tech86.719101098111098111920252423
13Rice86.64151718222315242829272418181817
14TCU86.3112131415141917171315129943
15Oregon State81.111376778131920213036383944
16Arkansas79.86161919212114142524261822262729
17Oklahoma78.68171417181618151114963355
18Miami77.851921201717212839503046241920
19UCLA76.52232924272524252119202110411
20Fresno State75.8621182114131312109121419193132
21Southern Mississippi75.811816111315161815162838-414546
22Stanford73.79252723231826161415131715121213
23Florida International71.002423323946------49---
24Connecticut69.642022252535464544--2928282016
25Creighton68.683241453644354948---42---
26UC Irvine68.26222527313328312928242623222828
27Arizona67.25312426262723222218191614171718
28East Carolina65.322933372929303431383542-5047
29Central Florida64.1830303841344740-34384541434547
30Kent State63.0334313330395033-------42
31Stetson62.562620151619201923233637----
32Coastal Carolina62.513339343241414442333132352121
33Troy61.1127363134263320263037344-47
34Georgia60.814542292830292934--50----
35LSU57.9836374135403227161710713141619
36Texas State57.9343343942363137303941----
37Oklahoma State57.44352622202017212441403844--
38California57.21282828242422231821232324202624
39Baylor56.6237454646-43474125252030313025
40North Carolina State54.3938434237314248
41Dallas Baptist54.154146-------------
42Mississippi State51.7840323545323638-3349-----
43Alabama51.48423830334537302026--48393437
44Kansas State50.2350474437-----4439464240
45Jacksonville44.834749--484850--50-----
46James Madison47.34----------45334747
47Cal State Bakersfield47.13-----404137---35---
48Mississippi46.96494844-4239423337343237323843
49Oregon46.48--------35293527161311
50Elon46.05394040403838484743-48----

____________________________________________

COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: CB360′s 100-point Composite National Rankings formula  is centered around 15 core ingredients – plus a bonus/penalty factor based on record over past-10 games. The CNR combined a diverse collection of “experts” (ranging from coaches, various media, computer calculations and projections) – to help provide a preview of teams that could be in the running for the 2011 NCAA Championship field (hypothetically 50 teams, plus 14 others from lower-rated automatic-bid conferences).

Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers currently are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix. For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.

The 15 polls/ratings/projections listed below are averaged, with 39.5 points then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Finally, a maximum bonus/penalty of 0.5 points is factored into the formula based on record over the past 10 games.

Here are links to the 15 primary criteria currently used in the CNR (all updated as of May 30):
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN)
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll
• Baseball America poll
• Colllegiate Baseball magazine rankings
• Perfect Game rankings
• College Baseball Lineup rankings
• Official NCAA RPI
• Boyd’s World “Pseudo-RPI” (this page updated daily)
• Warren Nolan RPI (updated daily)
• Boyd’s World Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR; updated daily)
• Warren Nolan NPI (Nolan Power Index; updated daily)
• ESPN Bracketology NCAA Tournament projection (final)
• SEbaseball.com NCAA field-of-64 (final)
• Perfect Game NCAA Tournament projection (final)
• Baseball America NCAA Tournament projection (final)

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