Updated CB360 “Perfect World” NCAA Tournament (seeded 1-64)

May 28, 2012
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(updated) … What if the NCAA Baseball Championship was a pure tournament, seeded 1-64 with geography playing no factor in the matchups? Based on the newly-updated CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR, which includes an assortment of 15 ingredients in the formula: polls, rankings, RPI-type calculations and NCAA-field projections, plus a bonus/penalty for record over final-10 games), see below how the field would lay out … front-page photo courtesy of Kentucky

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Note – this “Perfect World” projection has been updated since Monday morning to include some national polls/rankings data that was updated later in the day.

This Perfect World projection correctly forecasted the eight national seeds, with four of them in spots where they ended up in the actual field (3-Florida State, 4-Baylor, 7-LSU and 8-South Carolina). This projection had UCLA as the top seed and Florida #2 (that order ended up being flipped) and also had Oregon as the 5th seed and Oregon 6th (again, those were flipped in the actual field).

The close resumes of numerous top teams can be seen in the CNR #9-#11 spots, as those three teams are separated by only 0.15 points on that 100-pt scale: Texas A&M 86.24, Stanford 86.22 & Rice 86.09.

In terms of the 16 host teams, our only difference from the actual field (no surprise here) was having Kentucky as a host team, rather than Miami. The CNR had Kentucky in the 16-spot and the ‘Canes 19th.

This 1-64 formulation basically means that the top seed (UCLA) gets the field’s lowest seed (Prairie View A&M) in its regional, along with our lowest-ranked 2-seed (#32 Ole Miss) but also the highest-ranked 3-seed (Missouri State). Under the current NCAA-selection setup, UCLA ostensibly could been given the field’s top regional 2-seed (such as Fullerton) due to geographical convenience.

As things turned out, UCLA (the actual #2 national seed) must open vs. the #58 team in our projection, Creighton, a team fronted by ace lefhthander Ty Blach. … By our “Perfect World” concept, a 2nd-seeded UCLA would have been opening vs. (63) Sacred Heart.

The final five at-large teams into our field were: Texas, Appalachian State, Utah Valley, Sam Houston State & Indiana State. The CB360 Composite National Rankings forecasted Wake Forest, Cal Poly, Southeastern Louisiana, Michigan State & the College of Charleston as teams narrowly missing the NCAAs.

This Perfect World projection missed only on Utah Valley and Texas (instead, Michigan State & Charleston made the field).

We also match up the Super-Regional matchups based on the ratings from each regional #1 seed … so that the winner of the regional with the #1 seed would face the winner from the regional with the #16 national seed, in the Super-Regionals (this is not necessarily the case under the current NCAA format, as regionals often are paired based on geographical proximity).

One other quick note – we still kept conference teams away from each other in this projection (there was one each in the ACC, SEC and Pac-12, see below) by shifting teams up or down one regional, as needed, to correct the conflicts.

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Here’s something to chew on – and some interesting matchups throughout. Enjoy …

“PERFECT-WORLD” NCAA BASEBALL BRACKET – * Updated 5/28/12, 7 ET *
(seeded 1-64, based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings) 

• (1) AT UCLA … winner vs. (16) Kentucky Regional winner
1 – UCLA  (96.14 pts in CB360 Composite National Rankings)
32 – Mississippi  (59.56)
33 – Missouri State  (58.99)
64 – Prairie View A&M  (lowest-ranked team in field, based on RPI at WarrenNolan.com)

• (2) AT FLORIDA … winner vs. (15) Virginia Regional winner
2 – Florida  (94.95)
31 – Coastal Carolina  (61.82)
34 – Clemson  (57.93)
63 – Sacred Heart

• (3) AT FLORIDA STATE … winner vs. (14) NC State Regional winner
3 – Florida State  (93.23)
29 – Louisville  (63.84; swapped w/ 30 Georgia Tech, ACC conflict w/ FSU)
35 – New Mexico State  (55.45)
62 – Bethune-Cookman

• (4) AT BAYLOR … winner vs. (13) Arizona Regional winner
4 – Baylor  (92.95)
30 – Georgia Tech  (62.29; swapped w/ 29 Louisville, ACC conflict w/ FSU)
36 – East Carolina  (54.85)
61 – Dayton

• (5) AT NORTH CAROLINA … winner vs. (12) Purdue Regional winner
5 – North Carolina  (92.34)
28 – Dallas Baptist  (65.66)
37 – Indiana State  (54.11)
60 – Valparaiso

• (6) AT OREGON … winner vs. (11) Rice Regional winner
6 – Oregon  (90.86)
27 – Oklahoma  (65.88)
38 – Sam Houston State  (53.16)
59 – Manhattan

• (7) AT LSU …  winner vs. (10) Stanford Regional winner
7 – LSU  (90.76)
26 – Pepperdine  (65.99)
39 – Utah Valley  (52.83)
58 – Creighton

• (8) AT SOUTH CAROLINA … winner vs. (9) Texas A&M Regional winner
8 – South Carolina  (88.25)
23 – TCU (70.13; swapped w/ 25-Arkansas & then 24-Vanderbilt, SEC conflict w/ SC)
40 – Appalachian State  (52.46)
57 – Austin Peay

• (9) AT TEXAS A&M … winner vs. (8) South Carolina Regional winner
9 – Texas A&M  (86.24)
25 – Arkansas (66.94; swapped w/ TCU, SEC conflict w/ SEC)
41 – UNC Wilmington  (51.23)
56 – Louisiana-Monroe

• (10) AT STANFORD … winner vs. (7) LSU Regional winner
10 – Stanford  (86.22)
24 – Vanderbilt  (67.63; bumped from SC Regional, SEC conflict)
42 – Texas  (49.76)
55 – Oral Roberts

• (11) AT RICE … winner vs. (6) Oregon Regional winner
11 – Rice  (86.09)
22 – San Diego  (70.57)
43 – New Mexico  (48.35)
54 – UAB

• (12) AT PURDUE (in Gary, Ind.) … winner vs. (5) UNC Regional winner
12 – Purdue  (85.71)
21 – Mississippi State  (73.83)
44 – Stony Brook  (48.21)
53 – Missouri

• (13) AT ARIZONA … winner vs. (4) Baylor Regional winner
13 – Arizona  (85.69)
19 – Miami  (76.70; swapped 20 w/ Oregon State, Pac-12 conflict w/ AZ)
45 – Kent State  (47.45)
52 – Belmont

• (14) AT NC STATE … winner vs. (3) Florida State Regional winner
14 – North Carolina State  (83.65)
20 – Oregon State  (76.01; swapped w/ 19 Miami, Pac12 conflict w/ AZ)
46 – St. John’s   (45.57)
51 – Fresno State  (39.54)

• (15) AT VIRGINIA … winner vs. (2) Florida Regional winner
15 – Virginia  (83.58)
18 – Central Florida  (76.81)
47 – Samford  (44.53)
50 – Texas Arlington

• (16) AT KENTUCKY … winner vs. (1) UCLA Regional winner
16 – Kentucky  (80.90)
17 – Cal State Fullerton  (77.40)
48 – Army  (43.39)
49 – Cornell

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