The top-4 teams in the CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR) remain unchanged – Florida, Louisville, Miami and Texas A&M – as most of Division I baseball enters the final week of conference play. The Gators now have held the #1 spot in 13 of 14 weeks, including an active streak of seven straight weeks at #1 (A&M is the only other team to sit atop the CNR this season). Note that the CNR was updated prior to all the Thursday games played on May 19,
> Note: scroll down this page for an extensive and in-depth look into the current CNR, season-long trends, etc. The usual CB360 Top-50 weekend scoreboard also will be posted later on Friday, May 20 (with expanded results to include key results from conferences that don;t feature teams in the top-50).
As a reminder, the CB360 CNR is more than a simple average of the below factors. A max. of 60 teams per element enters into the formula, and in several cases (i.e. coaches poll and Collegiate Baseball magazine ratings, plus others/time permitting) the actual voting points play a role, beyond the simple placement (1-2-3, etc.). Projected NCAA fields also are extended to “seed” the first 32 teams 1–32 (all of the 3-seeds at each site are slated at 40.5, unless a “four last in” is included … in that case, those teams are 45–48 and the other regional 3-seeds are slated at 38.5). In short, a lot of inputting work and tweaking to the formula has been used over the years – ultimately to provide a snapshot of the 50 teams solidly in the mix to receive an NCAA Tournament bid (not including the lower-tier teams that ultimately will receive conference automatic bids).
The CNR formula has expanded to include the following 27 elements:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN; 49 total teams)
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll (50 total teams)
• DIBaseball.com top-25
• Baseball America top-25
• Collegiate Baseball magazine rankings (30 teams)
• Perfect Game top–25 rankings and others considered (29 total teams)
• Official NCAA RPI (top-60 teams)
• ESPN Power Rankings (25 total teams)
• Warren Nolan RPI (top-60 teams)
• Boyds World Pseudo-RPI (top-60 teams)
• Boyds World Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR; top-60 teams)
• Massey computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• Sagarin computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• DIBaseball.com Projected NCAA field-of-64 (top–48 teams)
• Baseball America Projected NCAA field-of-64 (top–48 teams)
• Perfect Game Projected NCAA field-of-64 (top–48 teams)
• Bennett computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Warren Nolan NPI (top-60 teams)
• Warrren Nolan ELO Chess computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• RoundTable computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• DISportsNet computerized rankings (top-50 teams)
• Burris computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Kislanko computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Dokter Entropy computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Bobcat computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Moore computerized rankings (top–60 teams)
• Past 10 games (max. bonus/penalty of 1.0 pts in CNR formula)
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> THE TOP-10 – In addition to Florida holding the #1 spot in the CNR for virtually all of the 2016 season (the Gators last week beat South Florida and won series vs. Vandy), three other teams have been in the top-10 all season: current #2 Louisville (top-8 all season; top-4 during past seven weeks) … current #4 Texas A&M (also top-8 all season; top-4 over past five weeks) … and current #8 Vanderbilt (also was #8 last week). The Cardinals had a huge week (win over Vandy; sweep of NC State) while the Aggies won their series vs. S.C. Mississippi State (beat Troy and swept Auburn) bumped up from #7 to a season-high #5 (after starting the season 22nd in the CNR).
Current #3 Miami, like Louisville, has been in the top-4 spanning the past seven weeks (top-12 all season). Texas Tech slipped back a spot to #6, while Ole Miss (#10 to #7) joined its arch-rival Mississippi State with a season-high ranking in the CNR. South Carolina (#6 to #9) fell three spots but remains in the top-10, while LSU (#13 to #10) is back in the top-10 and TCU slipped from 9th to 11th, after losing its series vs. Baylor.
The CNR top–10 is dominated by the SEC (7), plus a pair of ACC teams and the Big 12’s Texas Tech. Projecting out to the top-16 (i.e. regional host teams), there still are seven from the SEC (in fact, the SEC has its seven top-10 but no other teams in the top-50) along with five ACC, a pair of teams from the Big 12, and one each from Conference USA and the Big South.
Beyond the results referenced above, the past week’s action within the top-10 also saw the following: S.C. won midweek vs. Presbyterian … LSU swept a very rare five-game road trip (two at Notre Dame; series at Tennessee) … Ole Miss swept Kentucky … Miami beat Bethune-Cookman and swept Pitt … and TT won its lone game (vs. Abilene Christian).
> NEWCOMERS/RETURNERS – The following four teams have entered/returned to the CNR Top–50:
• [44] Louisiana Tech: won two vs NW (La.) St. and 1-of-3 vs [15] So. Miss.
• [46] Duke: def. Longwood, Norfolk St. & won series vs. [11] Florida State
• [48] Ohio State: beat FAU and swept [21] Michigan
• [50] Nebraska: beat UNO; won series vs. Penn St.
… while the following four dropped out of the top–10:
• Michigan State: beat EMU but lost series vs. Iowa
• Kentucky: lost to Indiana and swept by Ole Miss
• Stanford: beat Santa Clara but lost series vs. Utah
• UNC Greensboro: lost vs UNC Asheville & lost series vs. WCU
> MOVERS & SHAKERS – Here are teams that moved up or down seven-plus spots within the CNR during the past week:
• Arizona State (#42 to #28): beat UNLV and won series vs Arizona
• Dallas Baptist (#37 to #27): lost to OK St but won series vs Missouri St
• Cal State Fullerton (#26 to #18): won series vs. UCSB
• Louisiana-Lafayette (#34 to #26): lost to Houston but won series vs. South Alabama
• BYU (#39 to #31): beat Utah Valley and won series vs San Fran.
• Gonzaga (#45 to #32): won two vs Oregon and swept LMU
…
• Creighton (#33 to #49): lost to Wichita and lost series vs Xavier
• Washington (#25 to #38): lost series vs. Wash. St.
• Oregon State (#31 to #41): lost to Portland & lost series vs. Oregon
• Michigan (#21 to #29): lost to CMU and swept by Ohio State
• UC Santa Barbara (#29 to #37): lost to Bakersfield & lost series vs. Fullerton
• UNC Wilmington (#28 to #35): beat UNC but lost series vs JMU
• South Alabama (#32 to #39): lost series vs. ULL
• East Carolina (#38 to #45): lost to UNC and lost series vs South Floriad
> CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN of current CB360 Top–50 Composite National Rankings:
(18 leagues represented)
• ACC (10 … 2 top-10; 5 top-16; 8 top-25) – (2) Louisville, (3) Miami, (13) NC State, (14) Florida St, (15) Virginia, (17) Clemson, (23) North Carolina, (24) Georgia Tech, (46) Duke & (47) Wake Forest.
• SEC (7 … all top-10) – (1) Florida, (4) Texas A&M, (5) Mississippi State, (7) Ole Miss, (8) Vanderbilt, (9) South Carolina & (10) LSU.
• Pac-12 (5 … 1 top-25) – (21) Arizona, (28) Arizona State, (36) California, (38) Washington &
(41) Oregon State.
• Conference USA (4 … 1 top-16; 3 top-25) – (12) Southern Miss., (22) Florida Atlantic, (25) Rice & (44) Louisiana Tech.
• Big Ten (4) – (29) Michigan, (30) Minnesota, (48) Ohio State & (50) Nebraska.
• Big 12 (3 … 1 top-10; 2 top-16; 3 top-25) – (6) Texas Tech, (11) TCU & (19) Oklahoma State.
• Big West (3 … 1 top-25) – (18) Cal State Fullerton, (37) UC Santa Barbara & (43) Long Beach State.
• American Athletic (2 … 1 top-25) – (20) Tulane & (45) East Carolina.
• Sun Belt (2) – (26) Louisiana-Lafayette & (39) South Alabama.
• West Coast (2) – (31) BYU & (32) Gonzaga.
• 1 Each –Big South (#16 Coastal Carolina) … Missouri Valley (#27 Dallas Baptist) …
Southland (#33 Southeastern Louisiana) … Northeast (#34 Bryant) …
Colonial (#35 UNC Wilmington) … Horizon (#40 Wright State) …
Mid-American (#42 Kent State) … BIG EAST (#49 Creighton).
…
• USUAL SUSPECTS – Less than half (23) of the current CB360 Top–50 have been among the top-50 all season … that group includes all of the current top-11 (FL–LOU–Miami–A&M–Miss St–TT–OleMiss–VAN–SC–LSU—TCU) along with the following teams: NC St, FSU, UVa, Coastal, OK St, Tulane, FAU, Ga Tech, Michigan, Cal, UCSB and Oregon State. It’s interesting to note that the only three west-coast teams on this list are the three lowest-ranked among these 23 in the current Top–50.
• DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE? – The 2016 preseason CB360 Top–50 Composite National Rankings included a whopping 19 teams that are not among the current top–50, most notably five from the preseason top-20: [9] UCLA, [14] Oregon, [17] Houston, [18] Arkansas and [20] USC. Others that were CNR preseason top-50 but not in current top-50: [24] Maryland, [25] Texas, [26] Missouri State, [32] Kentucky, [33] Notre Dame, [34] Oklahoma, [36] Indiana, [37] College of Charleston, [41] San Diego State, [42] Illinois, [43] Missouri, [46] UC Irvine, [47] Auburn and [48] Iowa.
• EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS – On the flip side of the above note, there of course of 19 current CB360 Top-50 teams that were not in the CNR preseason top-50, led by current #12 Southern Miss., [17] Clemson and [21] Arizona. Others include: [30] Minnesota, [31] BYU, [32] Gonzaga, [33] Southeastern Louisiana, [34] Bryant, [38] Washington, [39] South Alabama, [40] Wright State, [42] Kent State, [44] Louisiana Tech, [45] East Carolina, [46] Duke, [47] Wake Forest, [48] Ohio State, [49] Creighton and [50] Nebraska.
• OTHERS GOING BEYOND THE PROJECTIONS – In addition to the teams listed in the above note, there are 10 others that were in the CNR preseason top-50 but currently are 10 or more spots higher than that preseason position, including nearly half of the current top-10! (Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss and South Carolina):
• Texas Tech (#35 preseason … #6 current)
• Ole Miss (#31 preseason … #7 current)
• South Carolina (#29 preseason … #9 current)
• Tulane (#40 preseason … #20 current)
• FAU (#41 preseason … #22 current)
• Mississippi State (#22 preseason … #5 current)
• Georgia Tech (#39 preseason … #24 current)
• Coastal Carolina (#30 preseason … #16 current)
• UNC Wilmington (#50 preseason … #39 current)
• Arizona State (#38 preseason … #28 current)
… Interestingly, there are only three teams that currently check in 10-plus spots lower than their preseason CNR Top-50 ranking (all others have dropped out of the top-50 entirely): Oregon State (#8 preseason; now #41) … California (#12 preseason … now #36) … and Louisiana-Lafayette (#13 preseason … now #26). Also of note: despite its struggles within the ACC, North Carolina finds itself currently in the same slot (#23) as where it began the season within the CNR … while a team such as UC Santa Barbara (#37, after rising to #10 only a month ago) still is above it s preseason CNR position of 45.
• PARITY? MEDIOCRITY? MIXTURE OF BOTH? – Even the casual fan has to have noticed the crazy 2016 college baseball season that has been playing out over the past few months. In many conferences across the country, multiple teams have been provided the chance to seize control but instead have slipped back. Midweek results also have produced an avalanche of regular upsets, which could prove costly when it comes time for the NCAA committee to evaluate at-large resumes.
One final note to pass along, the CNR Top–50 amazingly has included 84 different teams over the course of the 2016 season, the current top-50 along with these 34 teams: Iowa, Auburn, UC Irvine, Illinois, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Indiana, Maryland, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Cal Poly, Fresno State, Boston College, Oregon, Texas, USC, Cal State Northridge, Alabama, UCLA, Arkansas, Houston, Tennessee, Old Dominion, College of Charleston, St. Mary’s, Missouri State, New Mexico, Lamar, Southeast Missouri, UNC Greensboro, Stanford and Michigan State.
________
CB360 Composite National Rankings #14 (May 18, 2016)
(rank), team – CNR pts (prev. weeks rank … preseason)
(1) Florida – 98.71 (1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … #1 preseason)
(2) Louisville – 97.97 (2 … 4 … 2 … 3 … 3 … 3 … 5 … 8 … 3 … 5 … 4 … 3 … 4)
(3) Miami – 97.20 (3 … 3 … 4 … 2 … 2 … 2 … 8 … 9 … 10 … 12 … 10 … 5 … 6)
(4) Texas A&M – 95.03 (4 … 2 … 3 … 4 … 7 … 8 … 1 … 3 … 4 … 3 … 3 … 4 … 3)
(5) Mississippi State – 94.40 (7 … 8 … 9 … 13 … 11 … 13 … 14 … 14 … 13 … 20 … 19 … 29 … 22)
(6) Texas Tech – 92.97 (5 … 9 … 10 … 7 … 10 … 20 … 25 … 40 … 41 … 35 … 31 … 36 … 35)
(7) Mississippi – 91.16 (10 … 10 … 11 … 14 … 8 … 10 … 10 … 6 … 5 … 9 … 13 … 19 … 31)
(8) Vanderbilt – 91.00 (8 … 6 … 8 … 5 … 6 … 4 … 3 … 5 … 2 … 2 … 2 … 2 … 2)
(9) South Carolina – 90.24 (6 … 5 … 5 … 6 … 4 … 6 … 4 … 11 … 15 … 19 … 16 … 30 … 29)
(10) LSU – 89.10 (13 … 17 … 14 … 12 … 19 … 18… 17 … 13 … 11 … 10 … 9 … 6 … 5)
(11) TCU – 87.45 (9 … 12 … 7 … 8 … 9 … 5 … 7 … 4 … 7 … 7 … 6 … 10 … 11)
(12) So. Mississippi – 83.66 (15 … 15 … 15 … 22 … 16 … 24 … 24 … 27 … 29 … 43 … 37 … 41 … –)
(13) North Carolina St – 83.45 (12 … 11 … 12 … 11 … 15 … 25 … 26 … 19 … 18 … 15 … 18…20…19)
(14) Florida State – 83.13 (11 … 7 … 6 … 9 … 5 … 7 … 9 … 10 … 9 … 13 … 12 … 9 … 13)
(15) Virginia – 81.31 (19 … 18 … 29 … 42 … – … 38 … 31 … 24 … 25 … 16 … 15 … 7 … 7)
(16) Coastal Carolina – 79.73 (17 … 19 … 13 … 16 … 24 … 30 … 44 … 48 … 46 … 36 … 22…28…30)
(17) Clemson – 78.20 (23 … 34 … 32 … 26 … 20 … 16 … 19 … 12 … 14 … 21 … – … – … –)
(18) Cal St Fullerton – 77.31 (26 … 36 … 38 … 33 … 41 … 41 … – … 35 … 23 … 32 … 21 … 22 … 16)
(19) Oklahoma St – 77.03 (14 … 14 … 19 … 30 … 40 … 19 … 16 … 21 … 26 … 30 … 30 … 24 … 10)
(20) Tulane – 75.71 (18 … 27 … 24 … 50 … 33 … 34 … 32 … 42 … 44 … 39 … 35 … 34 … 40)
(21) Arizona – 73.29 (16 … 30 … 18 … 44 … 49 … 39 … 23 … 29 … 27 … 48 … – … 42 … –)
(22) Florida Atlantic – 72.27 (27 … 25 … 27 … 18 … 22 … 14 … 20 … 22 … 19 … 23 … 23 … 25 … 46)
(23) North Carolina – 71.82 (24 … 20 … 15 … 15 … 12 … 9 … 6 … 2 … 6 … 6 … 7 … 15 … 23)
(24) Georgia Tech – 70.71 (22 … 22 … 35 … 32 … 26 … 22 … 15 … 23 … 31 … 17 … 20 … 23 … 39)
(25) Rice – 69.96 (20 … 23 … 20 … 20 … 27 … 32 … 40 … – … – … – … 49 … 27 … 21)
(26) Louisiana-Lafayette – 67.11 (34 … 29 … 22 … 23 … 30 … 36 … – … 49 … 35 … 27 …28…11…15)
(27) Dallas Baptist – 64.40 (37 … 41 … 36 … 45 … – … – … – … 34 … 40 … 28 … 42 … 26 … 28)
(28) Arizona State – 63.94 (42 … 42 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 32 … – … – … 44 … 38)
(29) Michigan – 62.90 (21 … 26 … 21 … 25 … 39 … 21 … 22 … 30 … 30 … 25 … 26 … 18 … 27)
(30) Minnesota – 62.59 (35 … 21 … 25 … 31 … 42 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(31) BYU – 62.21 (39 … 28 … 28 … 21 … 21 … 17 … 18 … 17 … 16 … 41 … 40 … – … –)
(32) Gonzaga – 62.17 (45 … 45 … 47 … 39 … 34 … 44 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(33) Southeastern Louisiana – 61.70 (30 … 39 … 41 … 38 … 36 … 42 … 41 … 44 … 50 …–…–…–…–)
(34) Bryant – 61.40 (36 … 35 … 33 … 43 … 50 … 48 … 50 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(35) UNC Wilmington– 61.03 (28 … 33 … 31 … 28 … 45 … – … – … 45 … 34 … 39 … 48 … 50)
(36) California – 60.60 (41 … 37 … 30 … 17 … 17 … 12 … 11 … 16 … 12 … 11 … 14 … 17 … 12)
(37) UC Santa Barbara – 60.50 (29 … 13 … 16 … 10 … 13 … 11 … 12 … 18 … 24…29…34…38…45)
(38) Washington – 59.70 (25 … 31 … 40 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(39) South Alabama – 57.88 (32 … 32 … 26 … 27 … 18 … 23 … 35 … 37 … 43 … 45 … 38 … 46 … –)
(40) Wright State – 55.75 (43 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(41) Oregon State – 55.69 (31 … 16 … 17 … 19 … 14 … 15 … 13 … 7 … 8 … 4 … 5 … 12 … 8)
(42) Kent State – 54.62 (44 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 46 … – … – … – … – … –)
(43) Long Beach State – 53.82 (49 … 43 … x … 46 … 43 … 37 … 27 … 33 … 38 … 40 … 48 … – … 49)
(44) Louisiana Tech – 53.15 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(45) East Carolina – 53.14 (38 … 40 … 37 … 34 … 35 … 29 … 38 … 43 … 36 … 26 … 24 … 49 … –)
(46) Duke – 52.19 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(47) Wake Forest – 51.84 (47 … 47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(48) Ohio State – 51.27 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(49) Creighton – 49.87 (33 … 24 … 34 … 40 … 37 … 46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(50) Nebraska – 49.48 (– … – … – … – … – … – … 43 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
Next Five – Stanford, Michigan State, Alabama, Southeast Missouri State and Kentucky
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–13:
(40) Michigan State (38 … 45 … 29 … 25 … 28 … 21 … 25 … 17 … 38 … 45 … – … –)
(46) Kentucky (48 … 39 … 24 … 23 … 26 … 33 … 38 … 49 … – … – … 40 … 32)
(48) Stanford (49 … x … 41 … 31 … 33 … 37 …. 32 … 34 … 37 … 29 … 33 … –)
(50) UNC Greensboro (46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–12:
(44) Southeast Missouri State – 50.45 (42 … 49 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(46) Lamar – 52.60 (43 … 47 … 32 … 45 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(50) New Mexico – 56.84 (44 … 35 … 38 … 49 … – … – … – … 50 … 41 … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–11:
(49) Missouri State (36 … 28 … 31 … 28 … 15 … 22 … 22 … 25 … 21 … 26)
(50) Cal Poly (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … 47 … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–10:
(37) St. Mary’s – 56.17 (47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(46) Long Beach State (43 … 37 … 27 … 33 … 38 … 40 … 48 … – … 49) (has returned to current top–50)
(48) Notre Dame (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–9:
(29) College of Charleston – 63.72 (27 … 30 … 41 … 33 … 44 … 44 … 37 … 37)
(44) Old Dominion – 52.66 (50 … 47 … 50 … – … – … – … – … –)
(46) Tennessee – 51.94 (47 … 42 … 39 … 37 … 46 … – … – … –)
(48) Houston – 51.40 ( 40 … 29 … 28 … 39 … 31 … 27 … 13 … 17)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–8:
(35) Nebraska – 56.62 (43 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
(38) Virginia – 55.77 (31 … 24 … 25 … 16 … 15 … 7 … 7) (has returned to current top–50)
(43) Fresno State – 54.84 (– … – … – … 33 … 43 … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–7:
(34) Arkansas – 61.90 (26 … 20 … 14 … 11 … 14 … 18)
(36) UCLA – 61.33 (20 … 28 … 18 … 17 … 16 … 9)
(39) Alabama – 53.93 (36 … 47 … 24 … 32 … 43 … –)
(45) UNC Wilmington– 52.26 (– … 45 … 34 … 39 … 48 … 50) (has returned to current top–50)
(46) Cal State Northridge – 50.46 (47 … 48 … – … – … – … –)
(48) USC – 48.99 (45 … – … – 33 … 31 … 20)
(49) Texas – 48.76 (– … 49 … 36 … 32 … 25)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–6:
(31) Oregon – 71.22 (21 … 8 … 8 … 8 … 14)
(34) Dallas Baptist – 55.06 (40 … 28 … 42 … 26 … 28) (has returned to current top–50)
(35) Cal State Fullerton – 69.04 (23 … 32 … 21 … 22 … 16) (has returned to current top–50)
(49) Louisiana-Lafayette – 57.02 (35 … 27 … 28 … 11 … 15) (has returned to current top–50)
(46) Kent State – 49.33 (– … – … – … – … –) (has returned to current top–50)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–5:
(32) Arizona State – 61.92 (– … – … 44 … 38) (has returned to current top–50)
(42) Boston College – 54.29 (– … – … – … –)
(45) UNC Wilmington – 48.71 (34 … 39 … 48 … 50) (has returned to current top–50)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–4:
(33) Fresno State – 59.77 (43 … – … –)
(42) Cal Poly – 53.91 (47 … – … –)
(47) Missouri – 51.11 (46 … 50 … 43)
(49) Texas – 48.04 (36 … 32 … 25)
(50) New Mexico – 46.70 (41 … – … –)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–3:
(33) USC – 57.60 (31 … 20)
(49) Rice – 49.30 (27 … 21) (has returned to current top–50)
(50) Oklahoma – 47.97 (45 … 34)
> Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Week–2:
(35) Maryland
(39) Indiana
(40) Kentucky
(42) Arizona (has returned to current top–50)
(44) Arizona State (has returned to current top–50)
(47) Notre Dame
> Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week–1:
(41) San Diego State
(42) Illinois
(44) UC Irvine
(47) Auburn
(48) Iowa
(49) Long Beach State (has returned to current top–50)