There’s a couple changes within the top-10 of CB360’s exclusive Composite National Rankings – most notably, a precipitous fall for Arkansas from the No. 2 spot all the way down to 19th. Oregon (#7 to #14) also slipped outside the top-10, with Stanford (#11 to #8, after sweep of then #25 Texas) and North Carolina State (#12 to #9) filling the two open spots among the top tier. Cal State Fullerton is on the outside edge of the top-10, after winning its series vs. Oregon to climb from 18th to 11th. front-page photo courtesy of Cal State Fullerton
Scroll down for more detailed info. on the most-recent CNR top-50 update – including the automated week-by-week chart that displays where each current top-50 CNR team has been ranked on a weekly basis in 2013.
The huge drop for Arkansas is unprecedented for one of the nation’s top teams in the six-year history of the CNR, as the Razorbacks went 0-4 in Surprise, Ariz. (with two losses to tournament host Arizona State, while also losing to Gonzaga and Pacific, both outside the top-50). As a result, the current 2-3-4 teams (Vanderbilt, LSU and Oregon State) each moved up a spot while Mississippi State climbed from 9th to 5th and UCLA from the 8th to 7th spot. Two other teams, (6) South Carolina and (10) Kentucky, maintained their same positions within the CNR top-10.
After only three weeks of play, one-third of the teams (17) that were in the CB360 preseason top-50 already have tumbled outside the top-50: (12) TCU, (20) San Diego, (31) Baylor, (32) New Mexico, (34) Coastal Carolina, (36) Kent State, (37) Wichita State, (38) East Carolina, (39) Dallas Baptist, (40) Tulane, (41) Sam Houston State, (42) Georgia, (43) St. John’s, (46) College of Charleston, (47) Florida Atlantic, (48) Auburn & (49) Elon. Note that USD and Baylor have returned to the top-50 this eek.
The CNR formula currently comprises six elements (links to each at bottom of this page) and will expand throughout the season to include various RPI/statistical rankings, NCAA projections, etc. The six current elements include five polls/rankings, from the coaches (USA Today/ESPN), the writers (NCBWA), Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball magazine and Perfect Game, plus a small bonus for early-season strength of schedule (per WarrenNolan.com).
The curent CB360 top-10 features five teams from the SEC, three from the Pac-12 and two ACC. When projecting the 16 #1 seeds in the NCAAs, based on the current CNR, there would be six from the SEC, four Pac-12, four ACC and one each from the Big 12 and Big West (Cal State Fullerton now 11th, up from 18th after opening at #23).
Scroll down for the complete CB360 top-50, along with various breakdowns from this update. Information on the CNR formula is included at the bottom of this page.
SCROLL DOWN for complete breakdown of the latest CNR update …
CNR TOP-50 CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (after week-3)
SEC (10 … 4 top-10, 6 top-25) – (2) Vanderbilt, (3) LSU, (5) Mississippi State, (6) South Carolina, (10) Kentucky, (13) Mississippi, (19) Arkansas, (29) Alabama, (30) Florida & (40) Texas A&M
ACC (8 … 2 top-10, 6 top-25) – (1) North Carolina, (9) NC State, (12) Florida State, (16) Georgia Tech, (20) Virginia, (25) Virginia Tech, (26) Miami & (31) Clemson
Pacific-12 (6 …3 top-10, 6 top-25) – (4) Oregon State, (7) UCLA, (8) Stanford, (14) Oregon, (18) Arizona & (21) Arizona State
Big 12 (4 … 1 top-10, 2 top-25) – (15) Oklahoma, (32) Oklahoma State, (35) Texas & (48) Baylor
Big West (3 … 2 top-25) – (11) Cal State Fullerton, (22) UC Irvine & (27) Cal Poly
Southland (3) – (41) Southeastern Louisiana, (c0-#44) Central Arkansas & (c0-#44) Lamar
BIG EAST (2 … 2 top-25) – (17) Louisville & (24) Notre Dame
Conference USA (2 … 1 top-25) – (23) Rice & (47) Southern Mississippi
Atlantic Sun (2) – (28) Florida Gulf Coast & (33) Mercer
West Coast (2) – (36) San Diego & (46) Pepperdine
1 Each – Missouri Valley (#34 Missouri State), Big South (#37 Liberty), Atlantic-10 (#38 VCU), Big Ten (#39 Indiana), Sun Belt (#42 Louisiana-Lafayette), Ivy League (#43 Dartmouth), Mountain West (#49 San Diego State), and Southern (#50 Appalachian State)
BIGGEST JUMPS IN THE CNR TOP-50 – Alabama (#39 to #29) & Cal State Fullerton (#18 to #11)
RETURNERS/NEWCOMERS TO THE CNR TOP-50 – #36 San Diego … #37 Liberty … #39 Indiana … #43 Dartmouth … co-#44 Central Arkansas & Lamar … #48 Baylor (USD & Baylor were in top-50 previously this seson)
DROPPED OUT OF THE CNR TOP-50 – #34 South Alabama … #40 Pittsburgh … #41 TCU … #42 Auburn … #44 Creighton … co-#46 Arkansas State, FIU, Georgia Southern, SC-Upstate
BIGGEST DROPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – Arkansas (#2 to #19) … Southern Mississippi (#30 to #47) … Pepperdine (#32 to #46) … Texas (#25 to #35) … Rice (#14 to #23)
COLLEGE BASEBALL 360 COMPOSITE TOP-50 (#4)
(updated after week-3, through games on March 3, 2013)
|Rank||Team||Pts||After Week-2||After Week-1||2013 Preseason|
|9||North Carolina State||89.66||12||11||10|
|11||Cal State Fullerton||89.13||18||21||23|
|28||Florida Gulf Coast||65.20||22||–||–|
|49||San Diego State||43.10||45||32||–|
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: As the season progresses, CB360′s 100-point Composite National Rankings formula ultimately becomes centered around upwards of 16 core ingredients – plus a bonus/penalty factor based on record over final-10 games. The CNR combines a diverse collection of “experts” (ranging from coaches, various media, computer calculations and postseason projections) – to help provide a preview of teams that could be in the running for the 2012 NCAA Championship field (hypothetically 50 teams, plus 14 others from lower-rated automatic-bid conferences).
Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers are used only early in the season (SOS are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 0.3 (SOS) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 39.7 or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.).
For the current CNR formula, a slight bonus (max. +0.6 pts) was awarded based on early-season strength of schedule (per WarrenNolan.com).
Here are links to the six criteria currently used in the CNR, as of March 5, 2013:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN); top-20 plus rec. votes
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll (top-30, plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America poll (top-25)
• Colllegiate Baseball magazine rankings (top-30)
• Perfect Game rankings (top-25, plus others to watch
• Warren Nolan early-season strength of-schedule; top-60 (slight bonus; max. +0.6 pts)