Final CB360 NCAA Tournament Projection (full 1-64 seeds)

May 30, 2011

Here’s CB360’s updated NCAA Baseball Tournament bracket, formatted as a straight 64-team seeded draw (with #1 playing #64, etc.) …

(updated morning of May 30, featuring the most-recent composite data from sources mentioned below) …

We’ve all seen projections over the past few weeks as to how the 2011 NCAA Baseball Tournament LIKELY will shake out … but what about a projection showing how the tournament SHOULD be formatted? – in an ideal situation in which all 64 teams were seeded and placed into appropriate Regionals. front-page photo courtesy of Virginia

College Baseball 360 undertook this task (full draw below, updated through the May 29 games), using these guidelines:

• The May 30 update of the CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR) was used to seed teams 1-56 (with the remaining eight teams seeded based on the May 24 official NCAA RPI).

• Some slight modifications then were made to avoid teams from the same conference being placed in the same Regional and also to avoid Regional #1 seeds being paired against a conference rival in probable Super-Regional meetings.

• The CNR formula currently features 16 different elements, 15 of them weighed equally along with a bonus/penalty for record over past-10 games. The 15 core criteria are averaged and converted to a 100-point scale, with the max bonus/penalty being 0.5 pts. The 15 core criteria currently used in the CNR include six polls/rankings, five RPI-type calculations, and four NCAA Tournament projections (see the Composite National Rankings link on right sidebar and then scroll down for more info. on the CNR formula).

For example, Virginia has returned to the #1 spot in the Composite National rankings and would be paired up in its home Regional with Alcorn State (#64 “seed”), plus Kent State and Coastal Carolina (the #32 and #33 teams in the current CB360 top-50/CNR). Essentially, the combined seeds in all of the day-1 matchups listed below add up to 65 (prior to modifications to keep conference rivals apart in the earlygoing).

The top-8 seeds (potential Super Regional hosts) based on this projection are as follows (in order): Virginia, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, Florida State and Arizona State (followed by Texas A&M and Cal State Fullerton). SEC rivals Florida (96.42) and Vanderbilt (96.31) fittingly have virtually the same CNR score, on the 100-pt scale, trailing only Virginia’s 97.13 and slightly ahead of #4 South Carolina (95.20). ASU narrowly edged A&M for the final top-8 spot (89.33 to 88.82).

The resulting 16 Regionals are listed below, paired up for Super-Regional matchups (i.e. winners of the Virginia and UCLA regionals would meet in the Super Regionals). Teams are listed in descending order of seed within each regional (1-2-3-4).

It’s an interesting read to see how the tournament might play out, minus the current geographical and travel-cost restrictions …

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(based primarily on the CB360 Composite National Rankings; slight corrections made to avoid certain conference matchups)

at (#1 CNR) Virginia
Kent State (#32 CNR)
Coastal Carolina (33)
Alcorn State (64)

Arkansas (16)
at UCLA (21)
James Madison (47)
Charlotte (50)


at (2) Florida
Stetson (31)
California (35)
Navy (63)

at Oregon State (15)
Miami (18)
Mississippi (48)
Cal State Bakersfield (49)


at (3) Vanderbilt
Troy (30)
Baylor (38)
Maine (62)

at Rice (14)
Fresno State (20)
Jacksonville (46)
Bethune-Cookman (51)


at (4) South Carolina
Central Florida (29)
Oklahoma State (37)
Princeton (61)

at Georgia Tech (12)
Southern Mississippi (19)
Elon (45)
Georgia Southern (52)


at (5) North Carolina
Arizona (28)
LSU (36)
Illinois (60)

at TCU (13)
Oklahoma (17)
Alabama (43)
Seton Hall (53)


at (6) Texas
East Carolina (27)
Georgia (34)
Wright State (59)

at Clemson (11)
UC Irvine (22)
Kansas State (44)
Manhattan (54)


at (7) Florida State
Creighton (26)
Texas State (39)
Austin Peay (58)

at Cal State Fullerton (10)
Connecticut (23)
Mississippi State (42)
Sacred Heart (55)


at (8) Arizona State
Florida International (25)
North Carolina State (40)
Oral Roberts (57)

at Texas A&M (9)
Stanford (24)
Dallas Baptist (41)
San Francisco (56)

Last Seven Out: East Tennessee State, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Mercer and Southeastern Louisiana, Florida Atlantic and St. John’s

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