A Look Back & Look Ahead…
With opening day of the NCAA baseball tournament upon us, here’s a quick look back at the recently-completed first week of the 2012 college baseball postseason (yes, the term “postseason” includes conference tournaments … it’s not exclusive to the NCAAs) and a look ahead to the next few days – as the postseason rolls on. front-page photo courtesy of Creighton
Here’s how this page is set up (be sure to peruse all of it, good stuff throughout):
• Top part – summary & review from the past week of NCAA Tournament qualification (conference tournaments/final week).
• Middle part – assortment of notes on 2012 NCAA tournament selections
• Bottom part – the 2012 NCAA regionals, with a seed-factor attached to each team based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings
And in case you missed it earlier in the week, CLICK HERE to see how our “Perfect World” NCAA Tournament bracket turned out – seeding the field 1-64 & placing accordingly in each region (i.e. 1-32-33-64 … 2-31-34-63 … etc.).
Enjoy (and play ball!) …
PLANTING SEEDS – Of the 27 conferences that held conference tournaments, only half of them (13) were won by #1 seeds – while five were won by teams seeded 6th or lower (#8 seed Georgia Tech in the ACC, #8 Creighton in the MVC, #7 Mississippi State in the SEC, #7 UAB in CUSA and #6 Missouri in the Big 12) … Cornell was a 14th top seed to win its conference automatic bid, but the Ivy League does not sponsor a full tournament (rather a best-of-3 series between the two divisional winners) … the average seed for 2012 conference tournament winners was 2.9 … here’s the breakdown of the 28 automatic bids that were decided in conference postseason play (Pac-12, Big West & WCC regular-season champs get NCAA bids from those leagues):
2012 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONS
1-Seeds (13/14*) – Army (Patriot), Austin Peay (OVC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), *Cornell (Ivy; 2-team series), Kent State (MAC), Manhattan (MAAC), New Mexico (MWC), UNC Wilmington (CAA), Oral Roberts (Summit), Purdue (Big Ten), Stony Brook (America East), Utah Valley (Great West, no automatic bid) & Valparaiso (Horizon)
2- Seeds (4) – Bethune-Cookman (based on win pct./div. champ; MEAC), Dayton (A-10), Sacred Heart (Northeast) & St. John’s (BIG EAST)
3-Seed (1) – Prairie View A&M (SWAC, based on win pct./divisional #2)
4-Seeds (2) – Samford (SoCon) & Texas Arlington (Southland)
5-Seeds (2) – Fresno State (WAC) & Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt)
6-Seed (1) – Missouri (Big 12)
7-Seeds (2) – Mississippi State (SEC) & UAB (CUSA)
8-Seeds (2) – Creighton (MVC) & Georgia Tech (ACC)
CRAZY EIGHTS – It has to be rare for multiple 8-seeds to win their conference tournaments in the same season, but that’s what happened in 2012 … for starters, Creighton rattled off four straight upsets in the Missouri Valley Tournament: 5-0 vs. (1) Indiana State, 11-5 and 10-3 vs. (4) Illinois State, and 8-6 vs. (6) Southern Illinois … meanwhile, Georgia Tech became the first 8-seed ever to win the ACC Tournament, after going 3-0 in pool play – 5-4 vs. (1) Florida State, 17-5 vs. (4) Virginia and 5-1 vs. (5) Clemson – before beating (6) Miami in the 8-5 title game … with the win over FSU, the Yellow Jackets became only the third ACC 8th seed ever to beat a top seed while the GT win over UVa represented the most lopsided win ever by an 8th-seeded team in the ACC.
WHERE DID ALL THE TOP TEAMS GO? – In CB360’s update of the Composite National Rankings (CNR) leading into the 2012 NCAA selections, there amazingly were only two CNR top-25 teams that won their conference tournaments: (12) Purdue, in the Big Ten, and (21) Mississippi State from the SEC … even continuing down the CNR through the top-40, only (31) Georgia Tech, in the ACC, and (32) Coastal Carlina from the Big South took home conference-tournament titles.
50-50 PROPOSITION – Final rundown of the assortment of games that CB360 was tracking from May 22-27 (those with implications on NCAA tournament bids) revealed that the higher-seeded/factored teams won at only a 55% clip (145-120) over that six-day span.
RINSE & REPEAT – Despite the rash of upsets in the 2012 conference tournaments, there actually were 10 teams that repeated as conference-tournament champions (only six of them as the top seeds):
Repeat Conference Tournament Champions (2011 & 2012)
• Atlantic Sun – Belmont (#1 seed)
• Big South – Coastal Carolina (#1 seed)
• Metro Atlantic (MAAC)– Manhattan (#1 seed)
• Mid-American (MAC) – Kent State (#1 seed)
• Mid-Eastern (MEAC) – Bethune-Cookman (#2 seed/win pct.)
• Missouri Valley – MVC Creighton (#8 seed)
• Northeast – Sacred Heart (#2 seed)
• Ohio Valley – Austin Peay (#1 seed)
• Summit – Oral Robets (#1 seed)
• Western Athletic – Fresno State (#5 seed)
RARE SHOWDOWNS – The 27 conference tournaments in 2012 produced only five in which the top-2 seeds met in the title game (only 2-of-22 were contested over the final week), with the 1-seeds winning three of those five showdown matchups.
Conference Tournament Finals Between 1-seed & 2-seed:
• MEAC (1-Delaware State beat 2-Bethune-Cookman, both won their divisions & DS had top record)
• Northeast (2-Sacred Heart beat 1-Monmouth)
• Patriot League (1-Army beat 2-Holy Cross)
• Big Ten (1-Purdue beat 2-Indiana)
• Metro Atlantic/MACC (1-Manhattan beat 2-Canisius )
WILD-WEST FINAL-DAY DUELS – The Big West & West Coast Conference regular-season titles (and corresponding NCAA automatic bids) fittingly game down to the final day of the season, with the winners of head-to-head battles claiming the crown: Cal State Fullerton over Long Beach State in the Big West, and Pepperdine over San Diego in the WC … entering the weekend, it already was known that whichever teams won those series would get the automatic bid (both series were 1-1 entering Sunday).
QUAD CHAMPS (almost) – The Pacific-12 conference nearly had four teams finish tied atop the standings at 19-11 … that rare finish required three results on the final day: Oregon State completing a sweep of Oregon (that happend), USC beating UCLA (USC won) and ASU beating Arizona (the ‘Cats won).
NOT OVER, ‘TILL IT’S OVER – Two teams extended their conference tournaments an extra day and advanced, first winning on Saturday and then in the Sunday rematch … 5-seed Fresno State completed that feat with a pair of wins over (2) Sacramento State to win the WAC, while top seed Manhattan had a final push to beat (2) Canisius twice in the MAAC.
CB360’s CHAMPIONSHIP-WEEK SCOREBOARD PAGES
May 27 … May 26 … MAY 25 … May 24 … May 23 … May 22
… CB360 Primetime Performers of the Day: May 23 … May 22
CLICK HERE for the CB360 Conference Tournament Central home page
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NCAA TOURNAMENT SELECTION NOTES …
• CONFERENCE CALL – Here’s a breakdown of the 64-team field for the 2012 NCAA Baseball Championship, sorted by conference:
8 – SEC
7 – ACC
5 – Pac-12
4 – Big 12 & Conference USA
3 – Missouri Valley & Southern Conference
2 – BIG EAST, Big Ten, Mountain West, Southland, WCC & WAC
1 – America East, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, independent, Ivy League, Metro Atlantic (MAAC), Mid-American (MEAC), Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, SWAC, Summit & Sun Belt
• FIRST-TIMERS – Dayton and Samford are making the first trips to the NCAAs in their program’s histories … Valparaiso is heading back to the NCAAs for the first time since 1968 and Cornell for the first time since ’77 … Michigan State’s previous NCAA tournament was in 1979 (Appalachian State in 1986, Purdue in ’87) … 37 of the teams in the 2012 NCAA field (58%) also reached the NCAAs in 2011.
• OLD STANDBYS – Miami is back in the NCAAs for the 40th straight year and Florida State now for 35 straight seasons (Fullerton has been an NCAA entrant 21 years running, Rice for 18 straight and Oral Roberts in 15 straight seasons).
• BUBBLE BREAKDOWN – NCAA selection committee chair Kyle Kallander indicated that the final five at-large teams into the 2012 NCAA baseball field were (in no order): the College of Charleston, Indiana State, Michigan State, Mississippi & Sam Houston State … he also listed Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Texas & Utah Valley as the five teams that were closest to earning those final at-large spots but were left out of the field.
• MORE BUBBLE-ICIOUS – Based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR) – which utilizes a 15-element formula that includes five rankings/polls, five RPI-type calculations, four NCAA tournament projections, and a “last-10-games” bonus/penalty – the CNR correctly forecasted 32 of the 34 at-large entries in the NCAAs (all but College of Charleston & Michigan State, instead having Utah Valley and Texas, which was the final at-large team in the CNR projection).
• BUBBLE-BURSTERS – It looks like the numerous upsets in 2012 conference tournaments cost upwards of six teams their potential spots in the 2012 NCAA field … specifically, tournament wins by SoCon 4-seed Samford, Soutland 4-seed Texas Arlington, WAC 5-seed Fresno State, Big 12 sixth seed Missouri, CUSA 7-seed UAB and MVC 8-seed Creighton all burst tournament bubbles for other teams across the country … based on the CNR, tournament winners such as Mississppi State (SEC 7-seed), Georgia Tech (ACC 8-seed), New Mexico (MWC top seed) & St. John’s (BIG EAST 2-seed) would have qualified for the NCAAs without their respective automatic bids.
• OH-SO CLOSE: Based on the above information, teams that came close to qualifying for the 2012 NCAAs included: Utah Valley, Texas, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Cal Poly, Southeastern Louisiana & Wichita State.
• SUPER-REGIONAL PROJECTIONS – Based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings, #7 national seed LSU drew the most-favorable potential Super-Regional opponent (Miami, rated only 19th in the CNR) … the lowest national seed, #8 South Carolina, also has a more favorable potential Super-Regional pairing opposite Virginia (CNR #15) while NCAA top seed Florida is lined up with CNR #14 NC State … despite being the NCAA 2-seed, UCLA drew a Texas A&M team that graded out 9th in the CNR … NCAA 3-seed Florida State is paired up w/ CNR-10 Stanford, 4-seed Baylor w/ CNR-11 Rice, 5-seed Oregon w/ CNR 12-Purdue and 6-seed UNC w/ CNR-13 Arizona … the NCAA seeds only the top-8 seeds, with the 16 national seeds paired up based on criteria that can include geographical proximity … using the NCAA top-8 seeds but then matching them up using the CNR, here’s how the Regionals would have been paired up …
Reworking the Regional Pairings (for Potential Super-Regionals)
• NCAA 1-seed Florida … vs. CNR-19 Miami
• NCAA 2-seed UCLA … vs. CNR-15 Virginia
• NCAA 3-seed Florida State … vs. CNR-14 NC State
• NCAA 4-seed Baylor … vs. CNR-13 Arizona
• NCAA 5-seed Oregon … vs. CNR-12 Purdue
• NCAA 6-seed North Carolina … vs. CNR-11 Rice
• NCAA 7-seed LSU … vs. CNR-10 Stanford
• NCAA 8-seed South Carolina … vs. CNR 9-Texas A&M
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TOUGHEST NCAA TOURNAMENT SITES
(based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings)
see below for best 4-team groupings, top 2-3-4 seed groupings, top 4-seeds, top 2-seeds, top 3-seeds & top 2-vs-3 matchups (scroll down for the “easiest/weakest” in various categories)
FOUR BEST REGIONALS (based on 4-team field)
• Miami Regional (112 combined CNR seed-numbers)
… 19 Miami, 18 Central Florida, 33 Missouri State & 42 Stony Brook
(not even close … this site has a 2-seed rated higher than the-1 in the CNR, plus one of our top-rated 3-seeds & a 4-seed good enough to be a 3)
• Oregon Regional (117)
… 6 Oregon, 17 Cal State Fullerton, 37 Indiana State & 57 Austin Peay
(Ducks have 2nd-toughest 2-seed in the field, behind only Kentucky)
• UCLA Regional (122)
… 1 UCLA, 22 San Diego, 41 New Mexico & 58 Creighton
• Texas A&M Regional (125)
… 9 Texas A&M, 23 TCU, 32 Mississippi & 61 Dayton
(best combination of 2 & 3 seeds in the field)
THREE TOUGHEST DRAWS for home teams
• Miami Regional (2-3-4 seeds have 93 combined CNR seed)
… 18 Central Florida, 33 – Missouri State & 42 Stony Brook
• Oregon Regional (112)
… 17 Cal State Fullerton, 37 Indiana State & 57 Austin Peay
• Virginia Regional (114)
… 27 Oklahoma (65.88), 39 Appalachian State & 48 – Army
FOUR TOUGHEST GAME-1 MATCHUPS for host teams
• (19) Miami ... vs. (42) Stony Brook (CNR seeds)
• (15) Virginia … vs. (48) Army
• (6) North Carolina … vs. (49) Cornell
• (10) Stanford … vs. (51) Fresno State
FOUR TOUGHEST 2-SEEDS
• Purdue Regional – (16) Kentucky (CNR seed)
• Oregon Regional – (17) Cal State Fullerton
• Miami Regional – (18) Central Florida
• LSU Regional – (20) Oregon State
FOUR TOUGHEST 3-SEEDS
• Arizona Regional – (29) Louisville (CNR seed), could have been 2-seed
• South Carolina Regional – (31) Coastal Carolina
• Texas A&M Regional – (32) Mississippi
• Miami Regional – (33) Missouri State
BEST 2-SEED vs. 3-SEED MATCHUPS
• Miami Regional – (18) Central Florida vs. (33) Missouri State (51 combined CNR seed)
• Oregon Regional – (17) Fullerton vs. (37) Indiana State
• Texas A&M Regional – (23) TCU vs. (32) Mississippi
• Purdue Regional – (16) Kentucky vs. (43) Kent State
… and the (on paper) easier/weaker sites …
EASIEST NCAA TOURNAMENT SITES
(based on the CB360 Composite National Rankings)
FOUR WEAKEST REGIONALS (based on 4-team field)
• NC State Regional (141 combined CNR seed-numbers)
… 14 NC State (83.65), 24 Vanderbilt, 40 UNC Wilmington & 63 – Sacred Heart
• Florida Regional (139)
… 2 Florida, 30 Georgia Tech, 45 College of Charleston & 62 Bethune-Cookman
• Rice Regional (138)
… 11 Rice, 25 Arkansas, 38 Sam Houston State & 64 Prairie View A&M
• Baylor Regional (137)
… 4 Baylor, 28 Dallas Baptist, 50 Texas Arlington & 55 Oral Roberts
THREE EASIEST DRAWS for home teams
• Florida Regional (2-3-4 seeds have 137 combined CNR seed)
… 30 Georgia Tech, 45 College of Charleston & 62 Bethune-Cookman
• Baylor Regional (133)
… 28 Dallas Baptist, 50 Texas Arlington & 55 Oral Roberts
• North Carolina Regional (131)
… 36 East Carolina, 46 St. John’s & 49 Cornell
FOUR EASIEST GAME-1 MATCHUPS for host teams
• (11) Rice … vs. (64) Prairie View A&M (CNR seeds)
• (14) NC State … vs. (63) Sacred Heart
• (3) Florida State … vs. (62) Bethune-Cookman
• (9) Texas A&M … vs. (61) Dayton
FOUR EASIEST 2-SEEDS
• NC State Regional – (36) East Carolina (CNR seed)
• Arizona Regional – (35) New Mexico State
• South Carolina Regional – (34) Clemson
• Florida Regional – (30) Georgia Tech
FOUR EASIEST 3-SEEDS
• LSU Regional – (52) Belmont (CNR seed), could have been 4-seed
• Baylor Regional – (50) Texas Arlington
• Florida State Regional – (47) Samford
• North Carolina Regional – (46) St. John’s
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2012 NCAA REGIONAL DRAW with Cb360’s CNR 1-64 seedings listed
• (1) at FLORIDA … winner vs. NC State Regional winner
2 – Florida (94.95 pts in CB360 Composite National Rankings)
30 – Georgia Tech (62.29)
45 – College of Charleston (46.62)
62 – Bethune-Cookman
• (2) at UCLA … winner vs.Texas A&M Regional winner
1 – UCLA (96.14)
22 – San Diego (70.57)
41 – New Mexico (48.35)
58 – Creighton
• (3) at FLORIDA STATE … winner vs. Stanford Regional winner
3 – Florida State (93.23)
21 – Mississippi State (73.83)
47 – Samford (44.53)
54 – UAB
• (4) at BAYLOR … winner vs. Rice Regional winner
4 – Baylor (92.95)
28 – Dallas Baptist (65.66)
50 – Texas Arlington (39.78)
55 – Oral Roberts
• (5) at OREGON … winner vs. Purdue Regional winner
6 – Oregon (90.86)
17 – Cal State Fullerton (77.40)
37 – Indiana State (54.11)
57 – Austin Peay
• (6) at NORTH CAROLINA … winner vs. Arizona Regional winner
5 – North Carolina (92.34)
36 – East Carolina (54.85)
46 – St. John’s (45.57)
49 – Cornell (40.23)
• (7) AT LSU … winner vs. Miami Regional winner
7 – LSU (90.76)
20 – Oregon State (76.01)
52 – Belmont
56 – Louisiana-Monroe
• (8) at SOUTH CAROLINA … winner vs.Virginia Regional winner
8 – South Carolina (88.25)
34 – Clemson (57.93)
31 – Coastal Carolina (61.82)
59 – Manhattan
• at VIRGINIA … winner vs. South Carolina Regional winner
15 – Virginia (83.58)
27 – Oklahoma (65.88)
39 – Appalachian State (52.46)
48 – Army (43.39)
• at MIAMI … winner vs. LSU Regional winner
19 – Miami (76.70)
18 – Central Florida (76.81)
33 – Missouri State (58.99)
42 – Stony Brook (48.21)
• at ARIZONA … winner vs. North Carolina Regional winner
13 – Arizona (85.69)
35 – New Mexico State (55.45)
29 – Louisville (63.84)
53 – Missouri
117 (130)…64
• at PURDUE (in Gary, Ind.) … winner vs.Oregon Regional winner
12 – Purdue (85.71)
16 – Kentucky (80.90)
43 – Kent State (47.45)
60 – Valparaiso
• at RICE … winner vs. Baylor Regional winner
11 – Rice (86.09)
25 – Arkansas (66.94)
38 – Sam Houston State (53.16)
64 – Prairie View A&M
• at STANFORD … winner vs. Florida State Regional winner
10 – Stanford (86.22)
26 – Pepperdine (65.99)
44 – Michigan State
51 – Fresno State (39.54)
• at TEXAS A&M … winner vs. UCLA Regional winner
9 – Texas A&M (86.24)
23 – TCU (70.13)
32 – Mississippi (59.56)
61 – Dayton
• at NC STATE … winner vs. Florida Regional winner
14 – North Carolina State (83.65)
24 – Vanderbilt (67.63)
40 – UNC Wilmington (51.23)
63 – Sacred Heart