The top three teams in CB360’s exclusive Composite National Rankings – UCLA, LSU and Texas A&M – have maintained their positions atop the CB360 Top–50 – while TCU has bumped up three spots to 4th while another team from the Lone Star State, [5] Dallas Baptist, has continued its season-long climb (up from 9th). Current #6 Louisville and [7] Miami both have slipped back one position, while [8] Illinois has made its debut in the CNR top–10 (up from 11th). Florida tumbled from 4th to 9th while Florida State (13th to 10th) is back in the top–10, with USC (#8 to #16) and Arizona State (#10 to #17) dropping from that top tier.
– front-page photo courtesy of Illinois
CLICK HERE for the preseason top-50, with complete release, historical notes, etc.
… week–2 update … week–3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11
The current CNR formula includes 21 elements – the most detailed formula in the seven-year history of the CNR at CB360
(links to all 21 elements included lower down on this page):
• Seven regular national polls/rankings (USA Today coaches; NCBWA writers; Baseball America; D1baseball.com; Perfect Game; Collegiate Baseball magazine; and ESPN Power Rankings)
• Two midseason NCAA Tournament projections (BA and D1Baseball.com; PG does not have recent update)
• Four RPI elements (Official NCAA RPI, Warren Nolan RPI, Boyds World Pseudo-RPI, and projected final RPI from Warren Nolan)
• Five other RPI-type elements (Boyd’s World ISR, Massey Strength Ratings, Massey Power Rankings. ELO Rankings from Massey, and Warren Nolan Power Index/NPI)
• Three final elements that award a small bonus (projected final strength of schedule, plus current offense strength and defense strength, all per Massey)
The CNR Top-50 – which made its debut on CB360 in 2009 – can serve as a snapshot for teams that project for making the NCAAs (as at-large entrants, if they don’t win their conference automatic bids). In the past, the weekly top-50 also has included a listing of other projected NCAA qualifiers, for conferences that don’t feature any teams in the top-50 … and those teams also are included at the bottom of this page, based on a composite of various projections and other elements.
Only three teams – UCLA, LSU, and TCU – have been in the CNR top–10 all season (LSU and TCU top–7 all year). There are only 20 teams that have been on the CNR top–50 throughout the 2015 season, led by six from the ACC (Louisville, Miami, FSU, UNV, UVa and GT) plus four SEC (LSU, A&M, Florida and Vandy) and three Pac-12 (UCLA, ASU and Oregon St.) – along with the Big 12 duo over TCU and OK State, the Big Ten’s Illinois and Maryland, and Rice (CUSA), Houston (AAC) and UCSB (Big West).
The current top–8 in the CNR (projected national seeds) include two each from the SEC (LSU and A&M) and ACC (Louisiville & Miami), plus one each from the Pac-12, Big 12, MVC and Big Ten (UCLA, TCU, DBU and Illinois). Projecting the 16 regional hosts, based on the current CNR, there would be four from the SEC, three ACC, and two each from the MVC, Big 12, Big West and Pac-12 (plus Florida Atlantic from Conference USA).
Here are some more quick notes on the current Top-50 (scroll down for the full listing):
• COMING and GOING – These five teams have moved into/returned to the CB360 Top-50:
[35] Michigan State – won series at Indiana and won at Notre Dame
[43] Louisiana-Lafayette – swept series vs. Texas-Arlingtonand won vs. New Orleans
[46] East Carolina – swept series vs. UCF and lost at Liberty
[47] Kentucky – won series at Florida and lost vs. Louisville
[50] Tulane – swept series at Cincinnati and won vs. SE Louisiana
(note: all but MSU and ECU were in top–50 earlier this eason)
… and these five have slipped outside the top-50:
[35] Texas Tech – lost home series vs. OK St. and lost two midweek games vs. Grand Canyon
[41] Oklahoma – lost home series vs. Sam Houston and lost at Wichita
[43] UConn – lost home series vs. Memphis and lost home game vs. Holt Cross
[49] UCF – swept at ECU and won home game vs. South Florida
[50] Alabama – lost series at Ole Miss and lost home game vs. Southern Miss.
• MOVERS & SHAKERS – These seven other teams climbed seven or more spots within the top-50:
Memphis (#45 to #32) – followed midweek win at Ole Miss with series win at UConn, then two more midweek wins (at Ark. St. and vs. MVSU)
California (#47 to #34) – won series at Arizona and won vs. Fresno St.
Auburn (#37 to #25) – swept series vs. Georgia & won over Kennesaw
Rice (#39 to #27) – swept series at Western Kentucky
Southeastern Louisiana (#38 to #28) – swept series at Houston Baptist & lost vs. Tulane
Coastal Carolina (#30 to #23) – swept Presbyterian & won over UNC Wilmington
Houston (#31 to #24) – won series at South Florida & won over Sam Houston
… and these six teams each slid eight or more sports while still remaining within the top-50:
Missouri (#28 to #49) – swept at home vs. Vanderbilt and lost at Missouri St.
UNC Wilmington (#26 to #39) – lost series at Elon and lost vs. Coastal Carolina
Notre Dame (#25 to #37) – lost series at Wake Forest and lost home game vs. Michigan St.
Nebraska (#21 to #31) – swept at Iowa and won vs. Creighton
Oral Roberts (#33 to #42) – lost home series vs. South Dakota St. and won home game vs. Omaha
USC (#8 to #16) – lost series at Oregon St. and lost home game vs. Fullerton
• SEVEN SURGING TEAMS – Five teams currently find themselves in the top–25 of the CNR, despite not even being top–50 in the preseason CNR: [12] Florida Atlantic, [13] Missouri State, [16] USC, [18] Ohio State, [21] Iowa, [23] Coastal Carolina and [25] Auburn … Dallas Baptist was at the bottom of the preseason top–50 but now sits all the way up at #5.
• THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES – 21 of the teams in the CB360 preseason Top–50 (Composite National Rankings) currently sit outside the top–50, including four teams that were in the top–20 of the preseason CNR (#9 Texas, #11 South Carolina, #17 Texas Tech and #19 Mississippi State) … other preseason top–50 currently outside the top–50: [21] Oregon, [22] Stanford, [23] Kennesaw State, [27] Clemson, [28] Cal Poly, [29] Liberty, [30] Tennessee, [32] LMU, [35] Alabama, [38] UCF, [40] St. John’s, [42] Kent St., [43] Wichita St., [45] Pepperdine, [46] Ball St., [47] Sam Houston St. and [48] San Diego.
• FALLING OFF – Among teams still in the top–50, several have plummeted from early-season expectations:
– Virginia (preseason #2, then #1 for two weeks … now #33)
– Houston (preseason #8, rose to #6 … now #24)
– Rice (preseason #14, stood #9 midseason … now #27)
– Ole Miss (preseason #24 … now #44)
– CS Fullerton (preseason #16 … dropped out of top–50, now #45)
– CONFERENCE CALL – Here is the breakdown of the current CB360 top-50, by conference:
• 9 SEC teams (2 top-8; 4 top-16; 5 top-25) – (1) LSU, (3) A&M, (9) Florida, (11) Vandy, (25) Auburn, (30) Arkansas, (44) Ole Miss, (47) Kentucky and (49) Mizzou
• 7 ACC teams (2 top-8; 3 top-16; 4 top-25 ) – (6) Louisville, (7) Miami, (10) FSU, (22) UNC, (33) UVa, (37) ND and (41) Ga. Tech
• 6 Big Ten teams (1 top-8; 1 top-16; 4 top-25 teams) – (8) Illinois, (18) Ohio St., (20) Maryland, (21) Iowa, (31) Nebraska and (35) Michigan State
• 5 Pac-12 teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 3 top-25): – (1) UCLA, (16) USC, (17) ASU, (28) OR St. and (34) Cal.
• 5 American Athletic Conf. teams (1 top-25) – (24) Houston, (32) Memphis, (40) South Florida, (46) East Carolina and (50) Tulane
• 3 Missouri Valley teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 2 top-25) – (5) Dallas Baptist, (13) Missouri St. and (36) Bradley
• 3 Big West teams (1 top-16; 1 top-25) – (15) UCSB, (45) CS Fullerton and (48) UC Irvine
• 2 Big 12 teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 2 top-25) – (4) TCU and (14) OK St.
• 2 Conference USA teams (1 top-16; 1 top-25) – (12) Florida Atlantic and (27) Rice
• 2 Big South teams– (23) Coastal Carolina and (26) Raford
• 2 Colonial Athletic Assoc. teams– (29) Coll. of Charleston and (39) UNC Wilmington
• 1 Mountain West team – (29) Nevada
• 1 Southland team – (38) Southeastern Louisiana
• 1 Summit League team – (42) Oral Roberts
• 1 Sun Belt team – (43) Louisiana-Lafayette
_____________
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc. (teams likely projected to make the field only via automatic bids do not receive points in the CNR formula).
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS; and preseason conference coaches polls) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 2.0 (SOS & conf. poll) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 38.0, or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.). For late-April CNR, small bonuses are being factored in for: projected final strength of schedule; offense strength; and defense strength (all per Massey).
The CNR were introduced in 2009 by CB360 founder Pete LaFleur, who has created a similar formula for Composite National Rankings on affiliate site CollegeSoccer360.com.
Here are links to the 21 criteria currently used in the CNR:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN; top-25, plus rec. votes)
• National Collegiate Baseball NCBWA Writers Poll (top-30, plus rec. votes)
• DIBaseball.com top-25 (plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America top-25
• Collegiate Baseball magazine rankings (30 teams)
• Perfect Game rankings (top-25)
• ESPN.com Power Ratings (top-20, plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America projected NCAA Tournament field
• DIBaseball.com projected NCAA Tournament field
(note: Perfect Game projected field not updated since early April; will be included in formula when updated, likely next week)
• Official NCAA RPI (top–60)
• WarrenNolan.com RPI (top–60)
• Boyds World Pseudo-RPI (top–60)
• Projected Final RPI (Warren Nolan; top–60)
• Boyds World ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings; top–60)
• Massey Strength Ratings (top–60)
• Massey Power Ratings (top–60)
• ELO Ratings (Warren Nolan; top–60)
• Warren Nolan Power Index (NPI; top–60)
The below three elements award a small bonus (max. 1.0 point each, with baseline max of 97 for the average of the above 19 core elements):
• Offense Strength (Massey; top–60)
• Defense Strength (Massey; top–60)
• Projected Final Strength of Schedule (Massey; top–60)
_________
CB360 Composite National Rankings #12
(top-50, plus projected NCAA field-of-64 – April 30, 2015)
(rank) Team – voting pts (previous weeks … 2015 preseason)
1. UCLA – 97.38 (#1 after week-11 … 2 … 4 … 6 … 6 … 7 … 10 … 4 … 5 … 6 … #6 preseason)
2. LSU – 95.98 (2 … 3 … 5 … 5 … 1 … 3 … 4 … 6 … 7 … 5 … 5)
3. Texas A&M – 92.96 (3 … 1 …1 … 3 … 2 … 5 … 8 … 22 … 24 … 24 … 33)
4. TCU – 88.64 (7 … 6 … 3 … 2 … 4 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 2 … 3 … 3)
5. Dallas Baptist – 87.10 (9 …. 15 … 15 … 15 … 21 … 27 … 27 … 25 … 25 … – … 50)
6. Louisville – 89.35 (5 … 4 … 6 … 11 … 8 … 13 … 18 … 23 … 20 … 10 … 10)
7. Miami – 88.86 (6 … 5 … 8 … 10 … 12 … 19 … 21 … 17 … 14 … 11 … 18)
8. Illinois – 85.44 (11 … 16 … 14 … 18 … 18 … 22 … 23 … 37 … 27 … 30 … 37)
9. Florida – 91.67 (4 … 8 … 11 … 4 … 5 … 2 … 3 … 5 … 4 … 4 … 4)
10. Florida State – 84.95 (13 … 12 … 7 … 11 … 7 … 12 … 15 … 21 … 22 … 16 … 13)
11. Vanderbilt – 83.51 (15 … 7 … 2 … 1 … 3 … 4 … 5 … 3 … 3 … 1 … 1)
12. Florida Atlantic – 83.33 (16 … 17 … 17 … 24 … 30 … 20 … 26 … 26 … 36 … – … –)
13. Missouri State – 83.81 (14 … 14 … 23 … 41 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
14. Oklahoma State – 81.94 (17 … 13 … 12 … 14 … 20 … 26 … 32 … 20 … 18 … 13 … 7)
15. UC Santa Barbara – 85.08 (12 … 11 … 13 … 13 … 15 … 17 … 17 … 19 … 17 … 21 … 25)
16. USC – 87.43 (8 … 10 … 10 … 9 … 14 … 10 … 11 … 24 … 37 … – … –)
17. Arizona State – 85.68 (10 … 9 … 9 … 7 … 10 … 14 … 14 … 16 … 13 … 17 … 15)
18. Ohio State – 66.15 (22 … 34 … 38 … 47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
19. College of Charleston – 71.23 (18 … 26 … 28 … 44 … 49 … – … _ … 39 … 30 … 42 … 34)
20. Maryland – 67.77 (20 … 18 … 18 … 31 … 19 … 31 … 29 … 18 … 21 … 20 … 20)
21. Iowa – 65.88 (23 … 20 … 25 … 30 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
22. North Carolina – 69.18 (19 … 23 … 31 … 32 … 25 … 23 … 13 … 15 …12 … 14 … 12)
23. Coastal Carolina – 59.50 (30 … 21 … 24 … 29 … 42 … – … – … 49 … – … – … –)
24. Houston – 59.46 (31 … 29 … 22 … 16 … 16 … 21 … 22 … 9 … 6 … 7 … 8)
25. Auburn – 54.53 (37 … 39 … 43 …. 49 … – … – … 30 … 38 … – … – … –)
26. Radford – 60.52 (29 … 46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
27. Rice – 54.16 (39 … 28 … 20 … 22 … 26 … 9 … 12 …. 13 … 11 … 15 … 14)
28. Oregon State – 58.54 (32 … 36 … 29 … 27 … 22 … 28 … 25 … 28 … 28 … 38 … 31)
29. Nevada – 65.44 (24 … 40 … 32 … 26 … 29 … 32 … 28 … 35 … 40 … – … –)
30. Arkansas – 58.21 (34 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 32 … 35 … 25 … 36)
31. Nebraska – 66.37 (21 … 19 … 19 … 23 … 31 … 48 … – … – … 42 … 36 …. 26)
32. Memphis – 49.54 (45 … 50 … 44 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
33. Virginia – 62.04 (27 … 41 … 21 … 19 … 17 … 8 … 2 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 2)
34. California – 48.07 (47 … 30 … 26 … 21 … 24 … 30 … 41 … 44 … – … – … –)
35. Michigan State – 53.88 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
36. Bradley – 55.05 (36 … 43 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
37. Notre Dame – 62.49 (25 … 31 … – … – … 44 … 33 … 39 … 33 … – … – … –)
38. Southeastern Louisiana – 47.68 (48 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
39. UNC Wilmington – 62.15 (26 … 27 … 34 … 40 … 37 … 42 … 40 … – … 50 … – … –)
40. South Florida – 52.66 (42 … 35 … 42 … 45 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
41. Georgia Tech – 52.73 (40 … 24 … 33 … 38 … 35 … 24 … 31 … 29 … 32 … 34 … 39)
42. Oral Roberts – 58.22 (33 … 38 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
43. Louisiana-Lafayette – 50.03 (– … – … – … – … – … – … 47 … – … – … 45 … 44)
44. Mississippi – 50.37 (44 … 48 … – … 50 … 45 … – … 46 … 30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
45. Cal State Fullerton – 48.35 (46 … 44 … – … – … – … 45 … 24 … 40 … 43 … 22 … 16)
46. East Carolina – 49.00 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
47. Kentucky – 48.94 (– … – … 39 … 39 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 49)
48. UC Irvine – 54.48 (38 … 32 … 41 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 39 … 41)
49. Missouri – 61.20 (28 … 25 … 27 … 34 … 32 … 35 … – … – … – … – … –)
50. Tulane – 46.42 (– … – … – … – … – … 37 … 42 … 31 … 39 … – … –)
Next Five: Connecticut, North Florida, Texas Tech, Long Beach State & Oklahoma
• 16 Other Projected 2015 NCAA Tournament Teams
(conferences not in top–50):
(based on composite preseason projections; to be updated in mid-April):
San Francisco (WCC) … Mercer (SoCon) … Wright State (Horizon)
Creighton (BIG EAST) … Alabama State (SWAC) … Columbia (Ivy League)
North Florida (Atlantic Sun) … Southeast Missouri State (Ohio Valley)
Stony Brook (America East) … Rider (MAAC) … Rhode Island (A-10)
Central Michigan (Mid-American) … Bryant (Northeast)
CS Bakersfield (WAC) … Navy (Patriot League) … Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–11:
35. Texas Tech – 56.83 (33 … 46 … 33 … 27 … 15 … 19 … 7 … 9 … 17)
41. Oklahoma – 52.69 (37 … 49 … – … 34 … 47 … – … – … – … – … –)
43. Connecticut – 52.48 (47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
49. UCF (Central Florida) – 47.00 (22 … 16 … 8 … 9 … 11 … 9 … 14 … 19 … 33 … 38)
50. Alabama – 46.85 (– … 50 … 48 … 41 … 38 … 47 … 41 … 31 … 29 … 35)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–10:
42. Long Beach State – 54.75 (37 … – … – … – … – … 36 … – … – … – )
45. San Diego State – 53.25 (36 … 35 … 38 … 39 … 33 … 27 … 33 … – … –)
49. South Carolina – 48.97 (30 … 17 … 11 … 6 … 7 … 8 … 10 … 12 … 11)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–9:
35. Texas – 56.66 (20 … 13 … 16 … 16 … 12 … 9 … 8 … 9)
39. Kentucky – 53.01 (39 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 49)
40. Arizona – 51.94 (25 … 33 … 41 … 37 … – … – … – … –)
45. San Diego – 48.43 ( 28 … 36 … 36 … 38 … 45 … – … – … –)
47. Indiana – 47.84 (36 … 28 … 29 … – … – … 49 … 32 … –)
48. Wright State – 47.25 (43 … 43 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
50. Alabama – 46.50 (48 … 41 … 38 … 47 … 41 … 31 … 29 … 35)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–8:
37. Georgia – 47.46 (– … – … 50 … – … 29 … – … –)
42. Oregon – 44.53 (23 … 18 … 6 … 10 … 15 … 18 … 21)
46. Cal State Northridge – 41.38 (40 … 43 … 44 … – … – … – … –)
50. Mississippi – 39.97 (45 … – … 46 … 30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–7:
34. Oklahoma – 48.31 (47 … – … – … – … – … –)
39. Mississippi State – 44.20 (25 … 20 … 11 … 16 … 19 … 19)
44. Notre Dame – 41.66 (33 … 39 … 33 … – … – … –)
46. Duke – 41.27 (– … – … – … – … – … –)
47. Old Dominion – 38.57 (– … – … – … – … – … –)
48. Stanford – 36.27 (40 … 34 … 34 … 44 … 26 … 22)
50. New Mexico – 35.50 (46 … 35 … 42 … – … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–6:
34. Campbell – 50.45 (43 … – … – … – … –)
37. Tulane – 46.98 (42 … 31 … 39 … – … –)
44. Milwaukee – 44.14 (– … – … – … – … –)
45. Cal State Fullerton – 43.63 (24 … 40 … 43 … 22 … 16)
49. East Carolina – 41.89 (– … – … – … – … –)
50. Central Arkansas – 41.69 (– … – … – … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–5:
30. Auburn – 54.27 (38 … – … – … –)
36. Arkansas – 48.48 (32 … 35 … 25 … 36)
45. Georgia Southern – 43.11 (– … – … – … –)
46. Mississippi – 42.03 (30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
47. Kennesaw State – 41.93 (46 … 23 … 23 … 23)
47. Louisiana-Lafayette – 41.93 (– … – … 45 … 44)
50. Georgia – 41.75 (– … 29 … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–4:
36. Long Beach State – 48.09 (– … – … –)
39. College of Charleston – 45.83 (30 … 42 … 34)
43. Baylor – 42.80 (34 … 43 … –)
47. Columbia – 42.46 (– … – … –)
48. Arkansas State – 42.40 (– … – … –)
49. Coastal Carolina – 42.40 (– … – … –)
50. Clemson – 42.30 (48 … 44 … 27)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–3:
29. Georgia – 50.50 (– … –)
38. UNLV – 42.27 (40 … –)
41. Grand Canyon – 41.57 (– … –)
42. Nebraska – 41.36 (36 … 26)
45. Tennessee – 39.02 (41 … 30)
46. Liberty – 38.57 (27 … 29)
47. Loyola Marymount – 38.52 (35 … 32)
49. Indiana – 38.04 (32 … –)
50. UNC Wilmington – 38.01 (– … –)
Dropped Out of Top-50 after Week–2:
31. Florida International
37. Cal Poly (#28 preseason)
39. UC Irvine (41)
45. Louisiana (Lafayette) (44)
46. Sam Houston State (47)
47. Washington
48. Pepperdine (45)
49. St. John’s (40)
50. Fresno State
Note: the following teams dropped out of the top-50 after being in the preseason CNR –
(42) Kent State, (43) Wichita State, (46) Ball State, (48) San Diego and (49) Kentucky (also #50 Dallas Baptist, which later returned to the top-50).