With the 2013 college baseball regular season winding down, here’s the rundown for CB360’s exclusive Composite National Rankings (CNR) entering the May 3-5 weekend series. The CNR currently includes 14 total elements in the formula – with the usual five rankings/polls (coaches, writers, Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball, & Perfect Game) along with five mathematical-based listings: official NCAA RPI, WarrenNolan.com RPI and Nolan Power Rankings, BoydsWorld.com Pseudo RPI and Iterative Strength Ratings, plus the Massey Power Ratings, along with NCAA field-of-64 projections from BA, PG & SEbaseball.com (links to all included at the bottom of this page). front-page photo courtesy of South Florida
(note that data below also includes some notes from the previous week’s update)
North Carolina has remained in the CNR top spot since the completion of week-1 (Arkansas was the preseason #1) while current #2 Vanderbilt and (3) LSU have swapped spots. Current #4 Oregon State and (6) Virginia also flipped spots from the previous week (the Beavers were 4th a week earlier and UVA was 7th), while (5) Cal State Fullerton and (7) Oregon occupy their same positions.
A pair of ACC teams – current (8) Florida State and (9) NC State – reversed their sports near the bottom of the top-10, while South Carolina (#12 to #10) has climbed back among the top group (Mississippi State slipped from 10th to 15th). One week earlier, Louisville had dropped from 10th to 14th.
Scroll down for more detailed info. on the most-recent CNR top-50 update – including the automated week-by-week chart that displays where each current top-50 CNR team has been ranked on a weekly basis in 2013.
The ACC – with (1) UNC, (6) Virginia, (8) NC State and (9) FSU – now has more top-10 teams (4) in the CNR than the SEC’s three (2-Vandy, 3-LSU and 10-SC). The rest of the CNR top-10 includes the Pac-12 duo of Oregon State and Oregon, plus Fullrton out of the Big West.
More than half of the teams (23) that were in the CB360 preseason top-50 have fallen outside the top-50 at some point this season: (12) TCU, (14) Florida, (20) San Diego, (24) Texas, (25) Texas A&M, (31) Baylor, (32) New Mexico, (33) Southern Miss., (34) Coastal Carolina, (35) Missouri State, (36) Kent State, (37) Wichita State, (38) East Carolina, (39) Dallas Baptist, (40) Tulane, (41) Sam Houston State, (42) Georgia, (43) St. John’s, (44) Pepperdine, (46) College of Charleston, (47) Florida Atlantic, (48) Auburn & (49) Elon. Note that Florida and New Mexico have returned to the current top-50.
When projecting the 16 #1 seeds in the NCAAs, based on the current CNR, there would be five from the ACC (also Clemson), four SEC (also Mississippi State), four Pac-12 (also ASU & UCLA), and one each from the Big West, Big Ten (Indiana) and BIG EAST (Louisville).
Scroll down for the complete CB360 top-50, along with various breakdowns from this update. Information on the CNR formula is included at the bottom of this page.
SCROLL DOWN for complete breakdown of the latest CNR update …
CNR TOP-50 CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (entering week-12)
SEC (9 … 3 top-10, 7 top-25) – (2) Vanderbilt, (3) LSU, (10) South Carolina, (15) Mississippi State, (18) Mississippi, (22) Arkansas, (24) Florida, (28) Kentucky &(38) Alabama
ACC (8 … 4 top-10, 7 top-25) – (1) North Carolina, (6) Virginia, (8) NC State, (9) Florida State, (16) Clemson, (20) Virginia Tech, (23) Georgia Tech & (29) Miami
Pacific-12 (6 … 2 top-10, 4 top-25) – (4) Oregon State, (7) Oregon, (11) Arizona State, (12) UCLA, (40) Arizona & (48) Stanford
Big Ten (4 … 1 top-25) – (13) Indiana, (43) Michigan State, (46) Illinois & (49) Ohio State
BIG EAST (4 … 1 top-25) – (14) Louisville, (35) South Florida, (41) Notre Dame & (44) Pittsburgh
Big West (3 … 1 top-10) – (5) Cal State Fullerton, (30) Cal Poly & (42) UC Irvine
Sun Belt (3 … 1 top-25) – (17) South Alabama, (32) Louisiana-Lafayette & (33) Troy
Big 12 (3 … 1 top-25) – (19) Oklahoma, (27) Kansas State & (36) Oklahoma State
Atlantic Sun (2 … 1 top-25) – (25) Mercer & (39) North Florida
Southland (2) – (37) Central Arkansas & (50) Lamar
1 Each – Conference USA (#21 Rice) … Colonial (#26) UNC Wilmington) … Big South (#31 Campbell) … Mountain West (#34 New Mexico) … Ohio Valley (#44 Austin Peay) … West Coast (#47 Gonzaga)
BIGGEST JUMPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – South Florida (#50 to #35) … Oklahoma State (#49 to #36) … Troy (#44 to #33) … North Florida (#48 to #39) … Virginia Tech (#28 to #20) … New Mexico (#42 to #34) … previous week: Rice (#39 to #26) … Kansas State (#44 to #31) … Louisiana-Lafayette (#48 to #36) … Alabama (#46 to #37) … Campbell (#37 to #30)
RETURNERS/NEWCOMERS TO THE CNR TOP-50 – (46) Illinois & (50) Lamar (Illini in top-50 earlier in season) … entered/returned previous week: (41) Pittsburgh, (42) New Mexico, (44) Troy, (46) Ohio State, (48) North Florida, (49) Oklahoma State & (50) South Florida (Pitt & OK-St. in top-50 earlier this season)
DROPPED OUT OF THE CNR TOP-50 – (39) San Diego & (47) Florida Atlantic … dropped out previous week: (31) Coastal Carolina, (40) William & Mary, (41) Houston, (42) Delaware, (43) Florida Gulf Coast, (47) Texas A&M and (50) Illinois
BIGGEST DROPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – Gonzaga (#32 to #47) … Stanford (#34 to #48) … Michigan State (#35 to #48) … previous week: Arizona (#27 to #43) … UC Irvine (#30 to #40) … Kentucky (#20 to #29)
COLLEGE BASEBALL 360 COMPOSITE TOP-50 (#12)
(updated after week-11, through games on April 28, 2013)
|5||Cal State Fullerton||95.34||5||5||5||4||6||10||10||11||18||21||23|
|8||North Carolina State||92.91||9||12||17||23||21||16||18||9||12||11||10|
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: As the season progresses, CB360′s 100-point Composite National Rankings formula ultimately becomes centered around upwards of 16 core ingredients – plus a bonus/penalty factor based on record over final-10 games. The CNR combines a diverse collection of “experts” (ranging from coaches, various media, computer calculations and postseason projections) – to help provide a preview of teams that could be in the running for the 2013 NCAA Championship field (hypothetically 50 teams, plus 14 others from lower-rated automatic-bid conferences).
Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers are used only early in the season (SOS are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 0.3 (SOS) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 39.7 or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.).
Here are links to the 14 criteria currently used in the CNR, as of May 2, 2013:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN); top-25 plus rec. votes
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll (top-30, plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America poll (top-25, plus NCAA tournament projection)
• Colllegiate Baseball magazine rankings (top-30)
• Perfect Game rankings (top-25, plus others to watch) & NCAA projection
• Official NCAA RPI
• WarrenNolan.com RPI; top-60
• Boyds World Iterative Strength Ratings; top-60
• Boyds World Pseudo-RPI; top-60
• WarrenNolan.com Nolan Power Index (NPI); top-60
• SEbaseball.com NCAA field-of-64
• Massey Power Ratings