The May 16 CNR Top-50, Presented By Dugouthats.com …
As has been noted throughout the national baseball media over the past few days, there was little movement at top of the various polls and projections over the past week – but plenty of significant shuffling in the crucial “bubble” territory for potential NCAA qualification. Note that this update to the CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR) is a bit of a hybrid, as the 16-element formula includes polls that were released on Monday (May 14), NCAA projections that came out the following day (May 15, after a couple key Mon. games), and then various RPI-type factors that reflect games played through Wed. (May 16; official NCAA RPI only reflects games through May 13). front-page photo courtesy of Vanderbilt
There are three returners (each of them NCAA bubble teams) to the CNR top-50, while the same teams occupy the top-3 spots but in a slightly different order (Florida State still #1, Florida back to #2 and Baylor slipped to #3). Oregon has surged from #9 to #4, one spot ahead of UCLA (up from #6) while current #6 North Carolina also bumped up one spot.
Scroll down for more detailed info. on the most-recent CNR top-50 update – including the automated week-by-week chart that displays where each current top-50 CNR team has been ranked on a weekly basis in 2012.
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Elsewhere in the CNR top-10, three SEC contenders dropped back a bit – South Carolina from #6 to #7, LSU from #4 to #8 and Kentucky from #8 to #9 – while Purdue stayed in the #10 position.
The CNR formula currently includes 16 elements (links to each at bottom of this page):
• Six national polls/rankings, from the coaches (USA Today/ESPN), the writers (NCBWA), Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball magazine, Perfect Game & ESPN (top-20 Power Poll)
• Six RPI-type formulations (NCAA official RPI … RPI calculations from Warren Nolan & Boyds World … Boyds ISR … Warren Nolan predicted RPI … and Warren Nolan’s NPI)
• Four NCAA Tournament 64-team field projections – from BA, PG, ESPN (Bracketology) & SEBaseball.com
The CB360 top-10 still includes four teams from the SEC, two each from the Pac-12 and ACC, and one each from the Big 12 and Big Ten. When projecting the 16 #1 seeds in the NCAAs, based on the current CNR, there would be four from the SEC and Pac-12, three ACC, two Big 12, and one each from the Big Ten, Conference USA & Big West.
With Vanderbilt’s return to the CNR top-50,the SEC once again has nine top-50 teams – as does the ACC (after Maryland crept back into the top-50), while the Pac-12 has slipped back a bit with only six teams currently in the CNR top-50.
In addition to Vanderbilt and Maryland, Oklahoma is the other returner to the CNR top-50 (checking in at #38, after its clutch series sweep of Baylor).
Scroll down for the complete CB360 top-50, along with various breakdowns from this update. Information on the CNR formula is included at the bottom of this page.
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SCROLL DOWN for complete breakdown of the latest CNR update …
CNR TOP-50 CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (after week-13)
SEC (9 … 4 top-10, 5 top-25) – #2 Florida, #7 South Carolina, #8 LSU, #9 Kentucky, #20 Arkansas, #26 Mississippi, #35 Georgia, #36 Mississippi State & #49 Vanderbilt
ACC (9 … 2 top-10, 5 top-25) – #1 Florida State, #6 North Carolina, #14 North Carolina State, #17 Virginia, #24 Miami, #28 Clemson, #33 Georgia Tech, #44 Virginia Tech & #48 Maryland
Pacific-12 (6 …2 top-10, 5 top-25) – #4 Oregon, #5 UCLA, #12 Stanford, #16 Arizona, #19 Oregon State & #27 Arizona State
Conference USA (4 … 2 top-25) – #11 Rice, #18 Central Florida, #30 East Carolina & #47 Tulane
Big 12 (4 … 1 top-10, 2 top-25) – #3 Baylor, #13 Texas A&M, #37 Texas & #38 Oklahoma
West Coast (2 … 1 top-25) – #21 San Diego & #34 Pepperdine
BIG EAST (2 … 1 top-25) – #25 Louisville & #46 St. John’s
Big Ten (2 … 1 top-10) –#10 Purdue & #50 Michigan State
Missouri Valley (2) – #31 Indiana State & #39 Missouri State
Southern (2) – #23 Appalachian State & #42 College of Charleston
1 Each – Big West (#15 Cal State Fullerton) … Mountain West (#22 TCU) … independent (#29 Dallas Baptist) … Big South (#32 Coastal Carolina) … Southland (#40 Sam Houston State) … Colonial (#41 UNC Wilmington)… Great West (#43 Utah Valley) … Western Athletic (#45 New Mexico State)
BIGGEST JUMPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – Indiana State (#42 to #31) … UNC Wilmington (#50 to #41) … Clemson (#35 to #28)
RETURNERS TO THE CNR TOP-50 – #38 Oklahoma … #48 Maryland … #49 Vanderbilt
DROPPED OUT OF THE CNR TOP-50 (51) – #43 Gonzaga … #44 Washington … #47 Southeastern Louisiana … #49 Long Beach State
BIGGEST DROPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – New Mexico State (#35 to #45) … Missouri State (#31 to #39) … Arizona State (#33 to #42)
COLLEGE BASEBALL 360 COMPOSITE TOP-50 Update #14
(updated after week-13, through games on May 13, 2012; note some criteria updated on May 15-16)
|14||North Carolina State||86.07||13||16||18||17||20||17||16||16||23||50||–||–||46|
|15||Cal State Fullerton||85.18||12||17||13||13||15||15||12||14||10||13||15||20||19|
|34||College of Charleston||60.02||34||30||33||–||–||49||41||–||45||38||34||32||36|
|40||Sam Houston State||55.29||38||25||24||24||25||37||–||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|45||New Mexico State||51.84||35||24||23||22||22||26||40||–||–||–||–||–||–|
Next 5 – Stetson, Wichita State, Southeastern Louisiana, Washington & Wake Forest
Dropped out of top-50 (51): #43 Gonzaga … #44 Washington … #47 Southeastern Louisiana … #49 Long Beach State
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: As the season progresses, CB360′s 100-point Composite National Rankings formula ultimately becomes centered around upwards of 16 core ingredients – plus a bonus/penalty factor based on record over final-10 games. The CNR combines a diverse collection of “experts” (ranging from coaches, various media, computer calculations and postseason projections) – to help provide a preview of teams that could be in the running for the 2012 NCAA Championship field (hypothetically 50 teams, plus 14 others from lower-rated automatic-bid conferences).
Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers are used only early in the season (SOS are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 0.3 (SOS) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 39.7 or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.).
Here are links to the 16 criteria currently used in the CNR, as of April 10, 2012:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN)
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll
• Baseball America poll
• Colllegiate Baseball magazine rankings
• Perfect Game rankings
• ESPN Top-20 Power Poll
• Official NCAA RPI
• RPI per WarrenNolan.com
• Pseudo-RPI per BoydsWorld.com
• Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR) per BoydsWorld.com
• Predicted RPI per WarrenNolan.com
• Nolan Power Index (NPI) per WarrenNolan.com
• NCAA 64-team projection per Baseball America “stock report”
• NCAA 64-team projection per Perfect Game
• NCAA 64-team projection per ESPN Bracketology
• NCAA 64-team listing per SEBaseball.com