The May 8 CNR Top-50, Presented By Dugouthats.com …
With the regular season ticking down and the various stages of postseason play – conference tournaments, then NCAA Regionals, Super-Regionals & the CWS – rapidly approaching, teams are starting to firm up their positions while a few still still are experiencing fluctuations in their regular-season resume. The top-4 teams in the CB360 Composite National Rankings (CNR) – Florida State, Baylor, Florida & LSU – maintained their same positions, but their still was movement within the CNR top-10 (coinciding with some key results from the past week). front-page photo courtesy of Utah Valley
Scroll down for more info. on the most-recent CNR top-50 update – including the automated week-by-week chart that displays where each current top-50 CNR team has been ranked on a weekly basis in 2012.
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The CNR formula currently includes 16 elements (links to each at bottom of this page):
• Six national polls/rankings, from the coaches (USA Today/ESPN), the writers (NCBWA), Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball magazine, Perfect Game & ESPN (top-20 Power Poll)
• Six RPI-type formulations (NCAA official RPI … RPI calculations from Warren Nolan & Boyds World … Boyds ISR … Warren Nolan predicted RPI … and Warren Nolan’s NPI)
• Four NCAA Tournament 64-team field projections – from BA, PG, ESPN (Bracketology) & SEBaseball.com
The SEC has eight teams in the top-50, but the top-2 teams are from the ACC (FSU) & Big 12 (Baylor). But the SEC still holds down the next three spots – even with Kentucky dropping from #5 to #8, as South Carolina has bumped up from #6 to #5 (after winning 2-of-3 at Arkansas). UCLA. on the heels of taking 2-of-3 from visiting Purdue, has climbed from #9 to #6 while Oregon is back in the top-10 (#12 to #9) following its series win at Arizona.
North Carolina (#11 to #7) is the other returner to the top-10, with Rice slipping back a spot (#10 to #11) and Stanford plummeting from #7 to #15 after another midweek loss to San Jose State and losing 2-of-3 at Oregon State. Purdue’s amazing 9th-inning, 10-run rally in gm-3 at UCLA allowed the Boilermakers to remain within the the top-10 (slipping from #8 to #10).
The CB360 top-10 now includes four teams from the SEC, two from the Pac-12 and ACC, and one each from the Big 12 and Big Ten. When projecting the 16 #1 seeds in the NCAAs, based on the current CNR, there would be four each from the SEC & ACC, three Pac-12, two Big 12, and one each from the Big Ten, Conference USA & Big West.
At times this season, the SEC, ACC and Pac-12 had as many as 26 combined teams in the CNR top-50, but that number has slipped a bit to 23 (8 SEC, 8 ACC, 6 Pac-12) – providing a glimpse at some of the choices that may face the NCAA selection committee. On the one hand, the committee may have the chance to select a ninth SEC team (such as Auburn), a ninth from the ACC (Wake Forest) or possibly the sixth Pac-12 squad (Washington).
On the other hand, Michigan State may be worthy as a second team out of the Big Ten … or maybe Southeastern Louisiana as a second entry out of the Southland … or maybe even a Utah Valley team that plays in a conference (Great West) without an automatic NCAA bid but could be riding a 41-game winning streak when the NCAA bids are announced.
There are three newcomers to the CNR top-50: #48 Utah Valley, #49 Long Beach State and co-#50 Michigan State. Three other teams have returned to top-50 status: #44 Washington, #45 St. John’s and #46 Tulane. St. John’s opened the season #24 in the CNR but had slipped out of the top-50 after three weeks of play (the Red Storm currently lead a jumbled BIG EAST race). Tulane spent month in the top-50 during the regular season, while Washington was #49 a couple weeks ago.
The teams making the biggest jumps within the top-50 include #26 TCU, which won 2-of-3 in a crucial Mountain West showdown series vs. New Mexico. Ironically, among those going the other direction, New Mexico State has slipped 11 spots to #35 (after losing midweek to Texas Tech and then dropping all three games at Hawaii).
Scroll down for the complete CB360 top-50, along with various breakdowns from this update. Information on the CNR formula is included at the bottom of this page.
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SCROLL DOWN for complete breakdown of the latest CNR update …
CNR TOP-50 CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN (after week-12)
ACC (8 … 2 top-10, 5 top-25) – #1 Florida State, #7 North Carolina, #13 North Carolina State, #16Virginia, #23 Miami, #30 Clemson, #436Georgia Tech & #41 Virginia Tech
SEC (8 … 4 top-10, 6 top-25) – #3 Florida, #4 LSU, #5 South Carolina, #8 Kentucky, #17 Arkansas, #22 Mississippi, #32 Mississippi State & #39 Georgia
Pacific-12 (7 …2 top-10, 5 top-25) – #6 UCLA, #9 Oregon, #15 Stanford, #19 Arizona, #21 Oregon State, #33 Arizona State & #44 Washington
Conference USA (4 … 2 top-25) – #11 Rice, #18 Central Florida, #28 East Carolina & #46Tulane
Big 12 (3 … 1 top-10, 2 top-25) – #2 Baylor, #14 Texas A&M & #37 Texas
West Coast (3 … 1 top-25) – #20 San Diego, #40 Pepperdine & #43 Gonzaga
BIG EAST (2 … 1 top-25) – #24 Louisville & #45 St. John’s
Big Ten (2 … 1 top-10) –#10 Purdue & #50 Michigan State
Big West (2 … 1 top-10) – #12 Cal State Fullerton & #49 Long Beach State
Missouri Valley (2) – #31 Missouri State & #42 Indiana State
Southern (2) – #29 Appalachian State & #34 College of Charleston
Southland (2 … 1 top-25) – #38 Sam Houston State & #47 Southeastern Louisiana
1 Each – independent (#25 Dallas Baptist) … Mountain West (#26 TCU) … Big South (#27 Coastal Carolina) … Western Athletic (#35 New Mexico State)… Great West (#48 Utah Valley) … Colonial (#50 UNC Wilmington)
BIGGEST JUMPS IN THE CNR TOP-50 – Dallas Baptist (#40 to #25) … TCU (#38 to #26) … Coastal Carolina (#34 to #27)
NEWCOMERS/RETURNERS TO THE CNR TOP-50 – #44 Washington, #45 St. John’s, #46 Tulane, #48 Utah Valley, #49 Long Beach State & co-#50 Michigan State (UVU, LBSU & MSU a;; are new to the top-50, the other three were among top-50 previously this season)
DROPPED OUT OF THE CNR TOP-50 – #43 Wake Forest … #45 Oklahoma … #48 Auburn … #49 Maryland … #50 Elon
BIGGEST DROPS WITHIN THE CNR TOP-50 – New Mexico State (#24 to #35) … Sam Houston State (#25 to #38) … Pepperdine (#32 to #40) … Stanford (#7 to #15)
COLLEGE BASEBALL 360 COMPOSITE TOP-50 Update #13
(updated after week-12, through games on May 5, 2012; note there are 51 teams listed, w/ co-#50s)
|12||Cal State Fullerton||86.61||17||13||13||15||15||12||14||10||13||15||20||19|
|13||North Carolina State||85.52||16||18||17||20||17||16||16||23||50||–||–||46|
|34||College of Charleston||59.32||30||33||–||–||49||41||–||45||38||34||32||36|
|35||New Mexico State||58.40||24||23||22||22||26||40||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|38||Sam Houston State||57.54||25||24||24||25||37||–||–||–||–||–||–||–|
|49||Long Beach State||49.13||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–||–|
Next 4 – Maryland, Wake Forest, Stony Brook & Wichita State
Dropped out of top-50: #43 Wake Forest … #45 Oklahoma … #48 Auburn … #49 Maryland … #50 Elon
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: As the season progresses, CB360′s 100-point Composite National Rankings formula ultimately becomes centered around upwards of 16 core ingredients – plus a bonus/penalty factor based on record over final-10 games. The CNR combines a diverse collection of “experts” (ranging from coaches, various media, computer calculations and postseason projections) – to help provide a preview of teams that could be in the running for the 2012 NCAA Championship field (hypothetically 50 teams, plus 14 others from lower-rated automatic-bid conferences).
Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers are used only early in the season (SOS are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 0.3 (SOS) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 39.7 or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.).
Here are links to the 16 criteria currently used in the CNR, as of April 10, 2012:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN)
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll
• Baseball America poll
• Colllegiate Baseball magazine rankings
• Perfect Game rankings
• ESPN Top-20 Power Poll
• Official NCAA RPI
• RPI per WarrenNolan.com
• Pseudo-RPI per BoydsWorld.com
• Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR) per BoydsWorld.com
• Predicted RPI per WarrenNolan.com
• Nolan Power Index (NPI) per WarrenNolan.com
• NCAA 64-team projection per Baseball America “stock report”
• NCAA 64-team projection per Perfect Game
• NCAA 64-team projection per ESPN Bracketology
• NCAA 64-team listing per SEBaseball.com