LSU – which held the top spot in CB360’s exclusive Composite National Rankings (CNR) during midseason – has returned to that No. 1 position, flipping spots with UCLA (LSU has been top–5 in the CNR for seven straight weeks). The next two teams, [3] Texas A&M and [4] TCU, maintained their spots within the top–10, while [5] Illinois – which pushed its winning streak to 21 games with a key sweep of Ohio State – has moved up three more positions. [6] Louisville also kept its same spot within the top–10, with current [7] Dallas Baptist dropping back two slots and Miami slipping from 7th to 8th. Florida State and Vanderbilt round out the top–10 (each moving up one position), while Florida has dropped outside the top–10 (9th to 11th).
Six teams have held down the No. 1 position in the CNR Top–50 at some point during the 2015 season: Vanderbilt, Virginia, TCU, LSU, Texas A&M and UCLA (each for two weeks, aside for Vandy with three).
– front-page photo courtesy of North Florida
CLICK HERE for the preseason top-50, with complete release, historical notes, etc.
… week–2 update … week–3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
The current CNR formula includes 20 elements – the most detailed formula in the seven-year history of the CNR at CB360
(links to all 20 elements included lower down on this page):
• Seven regular national polls/rankings (USA Today coaches; NCBWA writers; Baseball America; D1baseball.com; Perfect Game; Collegiate Baseball magazine; and ESPN Power Rankings)
• Two midseason NCAA Tournament projections (BA and D1Baseball.com; PG does not have recent update)
• Three RPI elements (Official NCAA RPI, Warren Nolan RPI and Boyds World Pseudo-RPI)
• Five other numerical evaluations (Boyd’s World ISR, Massey Strength Ratings, Massey Power Rankings. ELO Rankings from Massey, and Warren Nolan Power Index/NPI)
• Three final elements that award a small bonus (projected final strength of schedule, plus current offense strength and defense strength, all per Massey)
The CNR Top-50 – which made its debut on CB360 in 2009 – can serve as a snapshot for teams that project for making the NCAAs (as at-large entrants, if they don’t win their conference automatic bids). In the past, the weekly top-50 also has included a listing of other projected NCAA qualifiers, for conferences that don’t feature any teams in the top-50 … and those teams also are included at the bottom of this page, based on a composite of various projections and other elements.
Only three teams – UCLA, LSU, and TCU – have been in the CNR top–10 all season (LSU and TCU top–7 all year). There are only 20 teams that have been on the CNR top–50 throughout all of the 2015 season, led by six from the ACC (Louisville, Miami, FSU, UNV, UVa and GT) plus four SEC (LSU, A&M, Florida and Vandy) and three Pac-12 (UCLA, ASU and Oregon St.) – along with the Big 12 duo over TCU and OK State, the Big Ten’s Illinois and Maryland, and Rice (CUSA), Houston (AAC) and UCSB (Big West).
The current top–8 in the CNR (projected national seeds) include two each from the SEC (LSU and A&M) and ACC (Louisiville & Miami), plus one each from the Pac-12, Big 12, MVC and Big Ten (UCLA, TCU, DBU and Illinois). Projecting the 16 regional top seeds (typically hosts), based on the current CNR, there would be four from the SEC, three ACC, and two each from the MVC, Big 12 and Pac-12 (plus the Big Ten’s Illinois, Florida Atlantic from Conference USA and UCSB out of the Big West).
Here are some more quick notes on the current Top-50 (scroll down for the full listing):
• COMING and GOING – These two teams have moved into the CB360 Top-50:
[35] North Florida – swept series at Stetson and won game at Savannah State
[50] North Carolina State – swept series vs. Longwood and won midweek vs. Campbell
… and these two in-state rivals have slipped outside the top-50:
[43] Louisiana (Lafayette) – lost 2-of-3 at Appalachian State
[50] Tulane – lost 2-of-3 in home series vs. Houston
• MOVERS & SHAKERS – These seven other teams climbed seven or more spots within the top-50:
UC Irvine (#48 to #32) – won series at Minnesota, then won midweek at USC
Oral Roberts (#42 to #31) – swept series at Nebraska-Omaha
Cal State Fullerton (#45 to #34) – swept series at UC Riverside
California (#34 to #26) – won 2-of-3 in home series vs. Arizona State
Georgia Tech (#41 to #33) – swept home series vs. Presbyterian and won at Mercer
… and these five teams each slid seven or more spots while still remaining within the top-50:
Missouri (#20 to #36) – won 2-of-3 vs. Ole Miss and lost home game vs. Southeast Missouri
Ohio State (#18 to #30) – swept in home series vs. Illinois, then won midweek at Miami (OH) and Cincinnati
Nevada (#37 to #45) – swept series at New Mexico but then lost midweek at St. Mary’s
Nebraska (#31 to #38) – won 2-of-3 at Northwestern
Michigan State (#35 to #42) – won 2-of-3 in home series vs. Purdue
• SEVEN SURGING TEAMS – Five teams currently find themselves in the top–25 of the CNR, despite not even being top–50 in the preseason CNR: [12] Florida Atlantic, [13] Missouri State, [16] USC, [18] Ohio State, [21] Iowa, [23] Coastal Carolina and [25] Auburn … Dallas Baptist was at the bottom of the preseason top–50 but now sits all the way up at #5.
• THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES – 22 of the teams in the CB360 preseason Top–50 (Composite National Rankings) currently sit outside the top–50, including four teams that were in the top–20 of the preseason CNR (#9 Texas, #11 South Carolina, #17 Texas Tech and #19 Mississippi State) … other preseason top–50 currently outside the top–50: [21] Oregon, [22] Stanford, [23] Kennesaw State, [27] Clemson, [28] Cal Poly, [29] Liberty, [30] Tennessee, [32] LMU, [35] Alabama, [38] UCF, [40] St. John’s, [42] Kent St., [43] Wichita St., [44] La. Lafayette, [45] Pepperdine, [46] Ball St., [47] Sam Houston St. and [48] San Diego.
• FALLING OFF – Among teams still in the top–50, several have plummeted from early-season expectations:
– Virginia (preseason #2, then #1 for two weeks … now #41)
– Ole Miss (preseason #24 … now #46)
– CS Fullerton (preseason #16 … dropped out of top–50, now #34)
– CONFERENCE CALL – Here is the breakdown of the current CB360 top-50, by conference:
• 9 SEC teams (2 top-8; 4 top-16; 5 top-25 teams) – (1) LSU, (3) A&M, (10) Vandy, (11) Florida, (25) Arkansas, (27) Auburn, (43) Missouri, (46) Ole Miss and (49) Kentucky
• 8 ACC teams (2 top-8; 3 top-16; 4 top-25 ) – (6) Louisville, (8) Miami, (9) FSU, (21) UNC, (33) Ga. Tech, (41) UVa, (45) ND and (50) NC St.
• 6 Big Ten teams (1 top-8; 1 top-16; 2 top-25) – (5) Illinois, (18) Iowa, (30) Ohio St., (36) Maryland, (38) Nebraska and (42) Michigan State
• 5 Pac-12 teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 4 top-25): – (2) UCLA, (16) ASU, (19) USC, (22) OR St. and (26) Cal
• 4 American Athletic Conf. teams (1 top-25) – (20) Houston, (44) East Carolina, (47) South Florida and (48) Memphis
• 3 Missouri Valley teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 2 top-25) – (7) Dallas Baptist, (12) Missouri St. and (37) Bradley
• 3 Big West teams (1 top-16; 1 top-25) – (14) UCSB, (32) UC Irvine and (34) CS Fullerton
• 2 Big 12 teams (1 top-8; 2 top-16; 2 top-25) – (4) TCU and (15) Oklahoma State
• 2 Conference USA teams (1 top-16; 2 top-25) – (13) Florida Atlantic and (23) Rice
• 2 Colonial Athletic Assoc. teams (1 top-25) – (17) Coll. of Charleston and (39) UNC Wilmington
• 2 Big South teams – (28) Coastal Carolina and (29) Raford
• 1 Mountain West team – (24) Nevada
• 1 Summit League team – (31) Oral Roberts
• 1 Atlantic Sun team – (35) North Florida
• 1 Southland team – (40) Southeastern Louisiana
_____________
COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA: Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc. (teams likely projected to make the field only via automatic bids do not receive points in the CNR formula).
The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 40 points typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS; and preseason conference coaches polls) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 2.0 (SOS & conf. poll) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 38.0, or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.). For late-April CNR, small bonuses are being factored in for: projected final strength of schedule; offense strength; and defense strength (all per Massey).
The CNR were introduced in 2009 by CB360 founder Pete LaFleur, who has created a similar formula for Composite National Rankings on affiliate site CollegeSoccer360.com.
Here are links to the 20 criteria currently used in the CNR:
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN; top-25, plus rec. votes)
• National Collegiate Baseball NCBWA Writers Poll (top-30, plus rec. votes)
• DIBaseball.com top-25 (plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America top-25
• Collegiate Baseball magazine rankings (30 teams)
• Perfect Game rankings (top-25)
• ESPN.com Power Ratings (top-20, plus rec. votes)
• Baseball America projected NCAA Tournament field
• DIBaseball.com projected NCAA Tournament field
• Official NCAA RPI (top–60)
• WarrenNolan.com RPI (top–60)
• Boyds World Pseudo-RPI (top–60)
• Boyds World ISR (Iterative Strength Ratings; top–60)
• Massey Strength Ratings (top–60)
• Massey Power Ratings (top–60)
• ELO Ratings (Warren Nolan; top–60)
• Warren Nolan Power Index (NPI; top–60)
The below three elements award a small bonus (max. 1.0 point each, with baseline max of 97 for the average of the above 19 core elements):
• Offense Strength (Massey; top–60)
• Defense Strength (Massey; top–60)
• Projected Final Strength of Schedule (Massey; top–60)
_________
CB360 Composite National Rankings #13
(top-50, plus projected NCAA field-of-64 – May 7, 2015)
(rank) Team – voting pts (previous weeks … 2015 preseason)
1. LSU – 95.57 (#2 after week-12 … 2 … 3 … 5 … 5 … 1 … 3 … 4 … 6 … 7 … 5 … 5)
2. UCLA – 94.35 (1 … 1 … 2 … 4 … 6 … 6 … 7 … 10 … 4 … 5 … 6 … #6 preseason)
3. Texas A&M – 94.15 (3 … 3 … 1 …1 … 3 … 2 … 5 … 8 … 22 … 24 … 24 … 33)
4. TCU – 92.44 (4 … 7 … 6 … 3 … 2 … 4 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 2 … 3 … 3)
5. Illinois – 91.59 (8 … 11 … 16 … 14 … 18 … 18 … 22 … 23 … 37 … 27 … 30 … 37)
6. Louisville – 90.04 (6 … 5 … 4 … 6 … 11 … 8 … 13 … 18 … 23 … 20 … 10 … 10)
7. Dallas Baptist – 89.75 (5 … 9 …. 15 … 15 … 15 … 21 … 27 … 27 … 25 … 25 … – … 50)
8. Miami – 88.46 (7 … 6 … 5 … 8 … 10 … 12 … 19 … 21 … 17 … 14 … 11 … 18)
9. Florida State – 87.42 (10 … 13 … 12 … 7 … 11 … 7 … 12 … 15 … 21 … 22 … 16 … 13)
10. Vanderbilt – 87.05 (11 … 15 … 7 … 2 … 1 … 3 … 4 … 5 … 3 … 3 … 1 … 1)
11. Florida – 86.80 (9 … 4 … 8 … 11 … 4 … 5 … 2 … 3 … 5 … 4 … 4 … 4)
12. Missouri State – 84.91 (13 … 14 … 14 … 23 … 41 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
13. Florida Atlantic – 83.33 (12 … 16 … 17 … 17 … 24 … 30 … 20 … 26 … 26 … 36 … – … –)
14. UC Santa Barbara – 82.49 (15 … 12 … 11 … 13 … 13 … 15 … 17 … 17 … 19 … 17 … 21 … 25)
15. Oklahoma State – 81.60 (14 … 17 … 13 … 12 … 14 … 20 … 26 … 32 … 20 … 18 … 13 … 7)
16. Arizona State – 76.14 (17 … 10 … 9 … 9 … 7 … 10 … 14 … 14 … 16 … 13 … 17 … 15)
17. College of Charleston – 76.05 (19 … 18 … 26 … 28 … 44 … 49 … – … _ … 39 … 30 … 42 … 34)
18. Iowa – 74.93 (21 … 23 … 20 … 25 … 30 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
19. USC – 74.04 (16 … 8 … 10 … 10 … 9 … 14 … 10 … 11 … 24 … 37 … – … –)
20. Houston – 73.39 (24 … 31 … 29 … 22 … 16 … 16 … 21 … 22 … 9 … 6 … 7 … 8)
21. North Carolina – 71.33 (22 … 19 … 23 … 31 … 32 … 25 … 23 … 13 … 15 …12 … 14 … 12)
22. Oregon State – 69.01 (28 … 32 … 36 … 29 … 27 … 22 … 28 … 25 … 28 … 28 … 38 … 31)
23. Rice – 68.92 (27 … 39 … 28 … 20 … 22 … 26 … 9 … 12 …. 13 … 11 … 15 … 14)
24. Nevada – 67.78 (29 … 24 … 40 … 32 … 26 … 29 … 32 … 28 … 35 … 40 … – … –)
25. Arkansas – 67.10 (30 … 34 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 32 … 35 … 25 … 36)
26. California – 66.87 (34 … 47 … 30 … 26 … 21 … 24 … 30 … 41 … 44 … – … – … –)
27. Auburn – 65.16 (25 … 37 … 39 … 43 …. 49 … – … – … 30 … 38 … – … – … –)
28. Coastal Carolina – 62.80 (23 … 30 … 21 … 24 … 29 … 42 … – … – … 49 … – … – … –)
29. Radford – 62.68 (26 … 29 … 46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
30. Ohio State – 59.10 (18 … 22 … 34 … 38 … 47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
31. Oral Roberts – 55.87 (42 … 33 … 38 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
32. UC Irvine – 55.71 (48 … 38 … 32 … 41 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 39 … 41)
33. Georgia Tech – 53.90 (41 … 40 … 24 … 33 … 38 … 35 … 24 … 31 … 29 … 32 … 34 … 39)
34. Cal State Fullerton – 53.29 (45 … 46 … 44 … – … – … – … 45 … 24 … 40 … 43 … 22 … 16)
35. North Florida – 53.27 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
36. Maryland – 53.21 (20 … 20 … 18 … 18 … 31 … 19 … 31 … 29 … 18 … 21 … 20 … 20)
37. Bradley – 53.19 (36 … 36 … 43 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
38. Nebraska – 52.96 (31 … 21 … 19 … 19 … 23 … 31 … 48 … – … – … 42 … 36 …. 26)
39. UNC Wilmington – 52.24 (39 … 26 … 27 … 34 … 40 … 37 … 42 … 40 … – … 50 … – … –)
40. Southeastern Louisiana – 51.21 (38 … 48 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
41. Virginia – 51.11 (33 … 27 … 41 … 21 … 19 … 17 … 8 … 2 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 2)
42. Michigan State – 50.55 (35 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
43. Missouri – 49.27 (49 … 28 … 25 … 27 … 34 … 32 … 35 … – … – … – … – … –)
44. East Carolina – 47.10 (46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
45. Notre Dame – 47.04 (37 … 25 … 31 … – … – … 44 … 33 … 39 … 33 … – … – … –)
46. Mississippi – 46.85 (44 … 44 … 48 … – … 50 … 45 … – … 46 … 30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
47. South Florida – 46.14 (40 … 42 … 35 … 42 … 45 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
48. Memphis – 49.54 (32 … 45 … 50 … 44 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
49. Kentucky – 44.33 (47 … – … – … 39 … 39 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 49)
50. North Carolina State – 44.24 (– … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
Next Five: Tulane, Texas Tech, Liberty, Connecticut and Southern Mississippi
• 16 Other Projected 2015 NCAA Tournament Teams
(conferences not in top–50):
(based on composite preseason projections; to be updated in mid-April):
San Diego (WCC) … Mercer (SoCon) … Wright State (Horizon)
St. John’s (BIG EAST) … Alabama State (SWAC) … Columbia (Ivy League)
South Alabama (Southland) … Southeast Missouri State (Ohio Valley)
Stony Brook (America East) … Rider (MAAC) … Saint Louis (A-10)
Central Michigan (Mid-American) … Bryant (Northeast)
CS Bakersfield (WAC) … Navy (Patriot League) … Norfolk State (MEAC)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–12
43. Louisiana-Lafayette – 50.03 (– … – … – … – … – … – … 47 … – … – … 45 … 44)
50. Tulane – 46.42 (– … – … – … – … – … 37 … 42 … 31 … 39 … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–11:
35. Texas Tech – 56.83 (33 … 46 … 33 … 27 … 15 … 19 … 7 … 9 … 17)
41. Oklahoma – 52.69 (37 … 49 … – … 34 … 47 … – … – … – … – … –)
43. Connecticut – 52.48 (47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
49. UCF (Central Florida) – 47.00 (22 … 16 … 8 … 9 … 11 … 9 … 14 … 19 … 33 … 38)
50. Alabama – 46.85 (– … 50 … 48 … 41 … 38 … 47 … 41 … 31 … 29 … 35)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–10:
42. Long Beach State – 54.75 (37 … – … – … – … – … 36 … – … – … – )
45. San Diego State – 53.25 (36 … 35 … 38 … 39 … 33 … 27 … 33 … – … –)
49. South Carolina – 48.97 (30 … 17 … 11 … 6 … 7 … 8 … 10 … 12 … 11)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–9:
35. Texas – 56.66 (20 … 13 … 16 … 16 … 12 … 9 … 8 … 9)
39. Kentucky – 53.01 (39 … – … – … – … – … – … – … 49)
40. Arizona – 51.94 (25 … 33 … 41 … 37 … – … – … – … –)
45. San Diego – 48.43 ( 28 … 36 … 36 … 38 … 45 … – … – … –)
47. Indiana – 47.84 (36 … 28 … 29 … – … – … 49 … 32 … –)
48. Wright State – 47.25 (43 … 43 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
50. Alabama – 46.50 (48 … 41 … 38 … 47 … 41 … 31 … 29 … 35)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–8:
37. Georgia – 47.46 (– … – … 50 … – … 29 … – … –)
42. Oregon – 44.53 (23 … 18 … 6 … 10 … 15 … 18 … 21)
46. Cal State Northridge – 41.38 (40 … 43 … 44 … – … – … – … –)
50. Mississippi – 39.97 (45 … – … 46 … 30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–7:
34. Oklahoma – 48.31 (47 … – … – … – … – … –)
39. Mississippi State – 44.20 (25 … 20 … 11 … 16 … 19 … 19)
44. Notre Dame – 41.66 (33 … 39 … 33 … – … – … –)
46. Duke – 41.27 (– … – … – … – … – … –)
47. Old Dominion – 38.57 (– … – … – … – … – … –)
48. Stanford – 36.27 (40 … 34 … 34 … 44 … 26 … 22)
50. New Mexico – 35.50 (46 … 35 … 42 … – … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–6:
34. Campbell – 50.45 (43 … – … – … – … –)
37. Tulane – 46.98 (42 … 31 … 39 … – … –)
44. Milwaukee – 44.14 (– … – … – … – … –)
45. Cal State Fullerton – 43.63 (24 … 40 … 43 … 22 … 16)
49. East Carolina – 41.89 (– … – … – … – … –)
50. Central Arkansas – 41.69 (– … – … – … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–5:
30. Auburn – 54.27 (38 … – … – … –)
36. Arkansas – 48.48 (32 … 35 … 25 … 36)
45. Georgia Southern – 43.11 (– … – … – … –)
46. Mississippi – 42.03 (30 … 26 … 28 … 24)
47. Kennesaw State – 41.93 (46 … 23 … 23 … 23)
47. Louisiana-Lafayette – 41.93 (– … – … 45 … 44)
50. Georgia – 41.75 (– … 29 … – … –)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–4:
36. Long Beach State – 48.09 (– … – … –)
39. College of Charleston – 45.83 (30 … 42 … 34)
43. Baylor – 42.80 (34 … 43 … –)
47. Columbia – 42.46 (– … – … –)
48. Arkansas State – 42.40 (– … – … –)
49. Coastal Carolina – 42.40 (– … – … –)
50. Clemson – 42.30 (48 … 44 … 27)
– Dropped Out of the Top-50 after Week–3:
29. Georgia – 50.50 (– … –)
38. UNLV – 42.27 (40 … –)
41. Grand Canyon – 41.57 (– … –)
42. Nebraska – 41.36 (36 … 26)
45. Tennessee – 39.02 (41 … 30)
46. Liberty – 38.57 (27 … 29)
47. Loyola Marymount – 38.52 (35 … 32)
49. Indiana – 38.04 (32 … –)
50. UNC Wilmington – 38.01 (– … –)
Dropped Out of Top-50 after Week–2:
31. Florida International
37. Cal Poly (#28 preseason)
39. UC Irvine (41)
45. Louisiana (Lafayette) (44)
46. Sam Houston State (47)
47. Washington
48. Pepperdine (45)
49. St. John’s (40)
50. Fresno State
Note: the following teams dropped out of the top-50 after being in the preseason CNR –
(42) Kent State, (43) Wichita State, (46) Ball State, (48) San Diego and (49) Kentucky (also #50 Dallas Baptist, which later returned to the top-50).