College Baseball CB360 Composite National Rankings #9 (4/12/17)

The most recent update to CB360’s exclusive Composite National Rankings (CNR) includes two changes to the top-10, as [8] Virginia owns its highest ranking since being #7 five weeks ago, while [10] Cal State Fullerton is back in the upper tier, three weeks removed from peaking at #4. The top-4 remain unchanged (Oregon State, UNC, Louisville & Texas Tech) while preseason #1 TCU has bumped up two spots from last week, now at #5.

*** CB360’s CNR FORMULA currently includes the following 24 elements: ***
• National Coaches Poll (USA Today/ESPN; 48 total teams)
• National Collegiate Baseball Writers poll (59 total teams)
• DIBaseball.com top-25
• Baseball America top-25 poll
• Collegiate Baseball magazine top-25
• Perfect Game top-25
• Official NCAA RPI (top-60 teams)
• Warren Nolan RPI (top-60 teams)
• Boyd’s World Pseudo-RPI (top-60 teams)
• Boyd’s World Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR; top-60 teams)
• Sagarin power rankings (top-60 teams)
• Massey overall computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• D1Baseball.com Midseason Projected NCAA Field-of-64 (top-48 teams; #1-#3 seeds)
• Baseball America Current Projected NCAA Field-of-64 (top-48 teams + next-8)
• Warren Nolan Power Index (NPI; top-60 teams)
• Warren Nolan ELO Chess-based Ratings  (top-60 teams)
• Massey Power computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• Bennett Rank computerized power rankings (top-60 teams)
• RoundTable power rankings (top-60 teams)
• Moore computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• DISportsNet computerized rankings (top-60 teams)
• Max. 2.0-pt bonus for top-60 scoring teams (max 1.0) & top-60 “defense” (low runs allowed/gm; max 1.0), per Massey
• Assorted Conference preseason coaches polls (bonus points, max. 1.0 on 100-pt scale)
> SEC … ACC … Pac-12 … Big 12 … Big Ten … Big West … C-USA
AAC … MVC … Mt West … Sun Belt … Colonial … WCC  … Southland
BIG EAST … Horizon … Atlantic Sun … Mid-American … America East

Only four teams have maintained a top–10 spot within the CNR throughout the 2017 season: Oregon State, Louisville, Arizona and TCU. Louisville opened the season at #7 in the CNR and spent three weeks at #2, before dropping back a couple spots but now back to #3. Arizona sat at the bottom of the CNR preseason top–10 and ultimately climbed as high as #3 for a couple weeks, before sliding back to 9th but now at #7. CNR preseason #1 TCU, in search of a rare 4th straight College World Series appearance, occupied the CNR #1 position for the first month of the season and later slipped out of the top–10, at #14, for one week (then back to 8th and now 5th).

Texas Tech recently held down the #2 spot for two weeks (the Red Raiders opened 2017 outside the CNR top–20, at #21) … Clemson opened the season at #13 in the CNR but cracked the top–10 three weeks ago, at #8 … a pair of recent newcomers to the top–10 were not even CNR preseason top–50: current #9 Kentucky and recent #9/current #12 Oklahoma.

It took Kentucky a month into the 2017 season before cracking the CNR Top–50 (at #43), then ascending to #19, then #12 and now #9. Oklahoma slid into the Top–50 (#48) after Opening Week, followed by CNR spots of 27–24–30–21–14–9 and now #12.

• PLENTY OF TOP–10 MEMBERSHIP (“Flavors Of The Week”) – Only nine weeks into the 2017 season, a whopping 21 different teams have spent time within the CNR Top–10: the current #1–#10 teams, plus five other preseason Top–10 squads: Florida, LSU, Florida State, Vanderbilt and Coastal Carolina … along with these six teams: Virginia, Texas A&M, Baylor, St. John’s, Cal State Fullerton and Florida Gulf Coast. Five different CNR Top–10 teams this season were not even among the preseason Top–10: current #8 Kentucky and [9] Oklahoma, plus St. John’s (now #13), FGCU (now #19) and Baylor (now #31), while current #11 Wake Forest also was not a CNR preseason Top–50 team.

… The current CNR Top–10 includes four ACC teams, all in the top-5 (#2 UNC, #3 Louisville, #6 Clemson & #8 UVa) plus two from the surging Big 12 (#4 Texas Tech & #5 TCU, while Oklahoma dropped  from #9 to #12), along with the Pac-12 duo of [1] Oregon State and [7] Arizona, and only one SEC team among the Top–10: [9] Kentucky … plus the Big West’s 910 Cal State Fullerton.

• PROJECTED REGIONAL #1 SEEDS/HOSTS – Based on the current CNR, the 16 projected NCAA Regional hosts would include five from the ACC (UNC–LOU–CLEM–UVa–Wake Forest) … four from the SEC (UK–SC–LSU–Ark.) … the three Big 12 (TT–TCU–OU) … the Pac-12 pair (Ore St–Ariz) … and one each from the Big West (Cal State Fullerton) and Conference USA (Southern Miss.).

• COMING & GOING (and returning) – Three teams have returned to the CB360 Top–50: [43] Nebraska (#46 preseason and #42 after Opening Week, but then six weeks outside the top-50) … [47] Washington, which was #24 preseason and then #21, followed by four more weeks in the top-50 (but the past two weeks outside the top-50) … and [50] Michigan State, which spent six weeks in the top-50 (high of #31) before dropping outside the top-50 last week … the three teams that fell outside the top-50 this week include: [39] Southeastern Louisiana, [45] Georgia Tech and [50] Binghamton.

>>> CONFERENCE CALL – Here is the current CNR Top–50 breakdown, by conference (nearly half, 23, are from the SEC/ACC/Big 12 and 37 of the 50 are from these six leagues: SEC/Big 12/ACC/Pac-12/B1G/AAC):

• 10 SEC teams (4 top-16; 7 top-25) – (9) Kentucky, (13) LSU,  (14) Arkansas, (15) South Carolina, (18) Florida,
(20) Mississippi State, (21) Vanderbilt, (26) Auburn, (28) Texas A&M and (44) Ole Miss
• 7 Big 12 teams (2 top-8; 3 top-16): – (4) Texas Tech, (5) TCU, (12) Oklahoma, (30) West Virginia, (34) Texas (35) Baylor,
& (49) Oklahoma State
• 6 ACC teams (3 top-6; 5 top-16) – (2) North Carolina, (3) Louisville, (6) Clemson, (8) Virginia, (11) Wake Forest,
& (32) Florida State
• 5 Pac-12 teams (2 top-8; 2 top-16): – (1) Oregon State, (7) Arizona, (24) Stanford, (27) Oregon & (47) Washington
• 5 Big Ten teams (1 top-25) – (23) Michigan, (42) Maryland, (43) Nebraska, (46) Minnesota & (50) Michigan State
• 4 American Athletic Conf. teams (1 top-25) – (19) Houston, (22) South Florida, (36) Connecticut & (38) Central Florida
• 2 Southland Conf. teams – (33) McNeese State & (41) Sam Houston State
• 2 Big West teams (1 top-16; 2 top-25) – (10) Cal State Fullerton & (17) Long Beach St.
• 2 Conference USA teams (1 top-16) – (16) Southern Mississippi & (45) Old Dominion
• 1 each (5 teams) – Big East (#25 St. John’s) … Missouri Valley (#29 Missouri State) … West Coast (#31 San Diego) …
SoCon (#37 Mercer) … Mountain West (#39 New Mexico) … Atlantic Sun (#40 Florida Gulf Coast) …  Horizon (#48 Wright State)

… Conference Notes:
• The Pac-12 opened the season with the most teams (9) in the CNR Top–50 among all conferences … but only five of those teams (Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon & recently-returned Washington) are in the currentTop–50, as ASU, UCLA, USC & Cal all sit outside the current Top–50 despite being preseason Top–50 (they were, respectively, #34–43–44–45 in the initial CNR).
• Here was the preseason breakdown, by conference, of the CNR Top–50:
>> (9) Pac-12…(8) ACC…(7) SEC…(4) B12+BW…(3) AAC+CUSA+B1G…(2) SBC+SLC
…(1) MVC+CAA+WCC+MWC+HL
• After opening the season with only four CNR preseason Top–50 teams (TCU, OK St, TT & Texas), the Big 12 currently is much better positioned, with seven in the current CNR Top–50 (the above four, plus Oklahoma, WVU and Baylor).

>>> COMPOSITE NATIONAL RANKINGS (CNR) CRITERIA:  The CB360 Composite National Rankings, back for the 9th season in 2017, center around an in-depth statistical formula created in 2009 and enhanced over the years by CB360 co-founder Pete LaFleur (who also compiles a similar CNR for affiliate site CollegeSoccer360.c0m).  Teams receive points based on their standings in each poll/rating/projection (60 pts for #1; 59 for #2, etc.). For polls involving voting points (coaches and CB) and most of the various RPI-type ratings, the CNR adjusts to reward teams that have larger margins in the voting/point totals (whereas two teams with nearly the same voting-point total will be closer in the CNR allotment for that poll). Note that strength-of-schedule typically is factored into RPI formulations … thus the actual SOS numbers are used only early in the season (SOS are not used in the CNR when RPI already are in the mix). For the NCAA field projections, teams are awarded CNR points based on their respective seedings, “last in” and “last out,” etc.

The polls/ratings/projections are averaged, with 37-40 points (pending bonus pts, see below) typically then added to each total in order to yield the 100-point benchmark. Early in the season (projected SOS; and preseason conference coaches polls) and late in the season (final-10 games), a maximum bonus/penalty of 2.0 (SOS & conf. poll) or 0.5 points (final-10) is factored into the formula (in that case, 38.0, or 39.5, rather than 40, is added to the poll/rating/projection avg.). The current midseason CNR in 2017 includes a max. of 3.0 bonus points: max. 1.0 for preseason conference coaches poll; max 1.0 for current national scoring leaders; and max 1.0 for national “defense” leaders (low runs allowed/gm).
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• THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES – Seven current CNR Top–25 teams were nowhere to be found in the CNR Preseason Top–50: [9] Kentucky, [11] Wake Forest, [12] Oklahoma, [14] Arkansas, [22] South Florida, [25] St. John’s & [26] Auburn. Current #4 Texas Tech had climbed into #2 spot for a couple weeks, after opening the season at No. 21 in the CNR.

On the flip side, several preseason top–10 teams have tumbled significantly: Coastal Carolina (CNR preseason #9; now out of the top-50) … Vanderbilt (started at #4; fell to #29 but now #21) … Florida (#2 to #23, but now back knocking on the top-10 door at #18) … Florida State (#4, but recent slippage has the ‘Noles at #32) … and LSU (#3, but similar slump before surging back to current #13).

In addition to Coastal Carolina, five other teams that opened the season among the top-25 in the CNR already have tumbled out of the top-50: [14] NC State, [17] Louisiana (Lafayette), [18] East Carolina, [19] Miami and [23] UCSB (preseason #24 Washington had fallen out of the top-50 but is back this week).

Only 21 of the CNR preseason Top–50 have remained in the Top–50 all season:
> preseason #1 TCU
#2 Florida
#3 LSU
#4 Florida State
#5 Vanderbilt
#6 South Carolina
#7 Louisville
#8 Oregon State
#10 Arizona
#11 Cal State Fullerton
#12 North Carolina
#13 Clemson
#15 Oklahoma State
#16 Virginia
#20 Texas A&M
#21 Texas Tech
#22 Stanford
#25 Mississippi
#30 Houston
#41 New Mexico
#42 Southern Mississippi

… And only 60% (30 teams) of the CNR preseason Top–50 are in the current Top–50: the above 20, along with preseason #24 Washington, (27) Long Beach St., (31) Maryland, (32) Mississippi St., (33) Texas, (35) Sam Houston St., [46] Nebraska, (47) Oregon & (48) Wright St.

… While only 11 teams have stayed in the CNR Top–25 all season: Oregon State, UNC, Louisville, Texas Tech, Clemson, Arizona, TCU, S.C., Fullerton, UVa and LSU.

…  And only nine have been CNR Top–20 all season (the above 12, except for TT & UVa).

… Finally, as noted in the early parts of the text on this page, the only teams to stay in the CNR Top–10 all season: Oregon State, Louisville, Arizona and TCU.

>>> Click on the below links for earlier CB360 content: <<<

• CB360 Top–50 Results (some links to be added):
April 14–16  |  April 10–13
April 7–9  |  April 3–6  |  March 31–April 2  |  March 27–30
March 17–19  |  March 3–5
Feb. 27–March 2  |  Feb. 23–27  |  Feb. 21–23  |   Feb. 16–20

• CB360 Top–50 Releases:
2017 Preseason Composite National Rankings – in-depth release, with historical/archival content
Week–2 Update
Week–3 Update
Week–4 and 5 Update
Week–6 & 7 Update
Week–8 Update
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CB360 Composite Top-50 National Rankings #9 (April 12, 2017)
(rank) Team – voting pts  (prev. weeks/most recent first)
1. Oregon State – 98.06 (1 … 1 … 1 … 1 … 5 … 5 … 5 … #8 preseason)
2. North Carolina – 95.41 (2 … 3 … 7 … 9 … 13 … 7 … 8 … 12)
3. Louisville – 93.74 (3 … 4 … 5 … 2 … 2 … 2 … 4 … 7)
4. Texas Tech – 93.23 (4 … 2 … 2 … 4 … 6 … 10 … 16 … 21)
5.  TCU – 92.69 (7 … 8 … 14 … 5 … 1 … 1 … 1 …1)
6. Clemson – 92.09 (5 … 5 … 8 … 17 … 12 … 16 … 19 … 13)
7. Arizona – 91.72 (6 … 9 … 3 … 3 … 4 … 6 … 7 … 10)
8. Virginia – 84.43 (17 … 21 … 16 … 11 … 7 … 9 … 10 … 16)
9. Kentucky – 83.58 (8 … 12 … 19 … 43 … – … – … – … –)
10. Cal State Fullerton – 82.77 (14 … 15 … 4 … 13 … 17 … 15 … 13 … 11)
11. Wake Forest – 82.40 (11 … 16 … 23 … 33 … 42 … – … – … –)
12. Oklahoma – 81.51 (9 … 14 … 21 … 30 … 24 … 27 … 48 … –)
13. LSU – 81.01 (18 … 13 … 10 … 8 … 8 … 3 … 3 … 3)
14. Arkansas – 80.54 (15 … 17 … 26 … 37 … 23 … 25 … 39 … –)
15. South Carolina – 78.94 (10 … 6 … 6 … 18 … 18 … 13 … 11 … 6)
16. Southern Mississippi – 78.60 (16 … 22 … 20 … 42 … 49 … 35 … 44 … 42)
17. Long Beach State – 76.96 (25 … 32 … – … – … – … – … 38 … 27)
18. Florida – 76.41 (12 … 23 … 28 … 14 … 16 … 4 … 2 … 2)
19. Houston – 74.78 (21 … 11 … 22 … 29 … 26 … 28 … 25 … 30)
20. Mississippi State – 71.59 (30 … 48 … – … – … – … 39 … 34 … 32)
21. Vanderbilt – 70.04 (23 … 26 … 29 … 25 … 22 … 14 … 6 … 5)
22. South Florida – 69.62 (27 … 20 … 18 … 27 … 31 … 46 … – … –)
23. Michigan – 69.34 (20 … 29 … 24 … 19 … 30 … 43 … – … 40)
24. Stanford – 68.45 (33 … 25 … 25 … 22 … 15 … 17 … 22 … 22)
25. St. John’s – 67.73 (13 … 10 … 11 … 10 … 11 … 20 … – … –)
26. Auburn – 67.01 (24 … 28 … 30 … – … – … – … – … –)
27. Oregon – 64.03 (41 … 36 … 41 … 38 … – … – … – … 47)
28. Texas A&M – 62.42 (34 … 47 … 46 … 16 … 9 … 12 … 14 … 20)
29. Missouri State – 60.78 (37 … 45 … 37 … 28 … 21 … 37 … 49 … –)
30. West Virginia – 60.37 (28 … 34 … 38 … – … – … – … – … –)
31. San Diego – 59.98 (32 … 43 … 36 … 32 … 44 … – … – … –)
32. Florida State – 59.80 (22 … 18 … 17 … 6 … 3 … 8 … 9 … 4)
33. McNeese State – 59.71 (36 … 40 … 48 … 49 … – … – … – … –)
34. Texas – 58.98 (43 … 38 … – … 34 … 46 … 19 … 28 … 33)
35. Baylor – 58.61 (31 … 19 … 9 … 7 … 10 … 31 … – … –)
36. Connecticut – 56.02 (46 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
37. Mercer – 55.75 (44 … 49 … 34 … – … – … – … – … –)
38. Central Florida (UCF) – 55.38 (29 … 41 … 42 … 36 … 45 … 33 … – … –)
39. New Mexico – 55.04 (26 … 30 … 35 … 24 … 28 … 49 … 32 … 41)
40. Florida Gulf Coast – 54.40 (19 … 7 … 12 … 15 … 43 … – … – … –)
41. Sam Houston State – 52.53 (49 … – … 47 … – … – … – … 43 … 35)
42. Maryland – 52.54 (35 … – … – … – … – … – … 45 … 31)
43. Nebraska – 51.54 (– … – … – … – … – … – … 42…46)
44. Mississippi – 51.37 (48 … 27 … 15 … 20 … 19 … 11 … 12 … 25)
45. Old Dominion – 51.15 (40 … 35 … – … – … – … – … – … –)
46. Minnesota – 51.06 (47 … – … – … – … – … – … – … –)
47. Washington – 49.64 (– … – .. 43 … 50 … 33 … 23 … 21 … 24)
48. Wright State – 49.57 (42 … 42 … 44 … – … – … – … 40 … 48)
49. Oklahoma State – 49.25 (38 … 33 … 27 … 39 … 36 … 21 … 17 … 15)
50. Michigan State – 48.03 (– … 31 … 33 … 40 … 32 … 42 … 47 … –)

> next five: Southeastern Louisiana, Missouri, Coastal Carolina, San Diego State & Louisiana Tech

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-8:
[39] Southeastern Louisiana – 54.68 (39 … – … 31 … 31 … 47 … – … – … –)
[45] Georgia Tech – 49.73 (45 … – … – … – … 34 … 30 … 24 … 28)
[50] Binghamton – 47.59 (50 … 46 … 39 … 45 … 48  … – … – … –)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-7:
[24] Missouri – 68.14 (24 … 13 … 26 … 37 … 47 … – … –)
[31] Michigan St. – 61.08 (31 … 33 … 40 … 32 … 42 … 47 … –) … has returned to current top–50
[37] East Carolina – 55.75 (37 … 45 … 12 … 14 … 24 … 26 … 18)
[39] Kent State – 55.24 (39 … 50 … 46 … – … 48 … – … –)
[44] Louisiana Tech – 52.87 (44 … 40 … 21 … 20 … 34 … 46 … –)
[50] Tennessee – 49.58 (50 … 32 … 23 … 25 … 38 … – … –)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-6:
[31] Southeastern Louisiana – 61.22 (31 … 31 … 47 … – … – … –) … later returned to top–50
[43] Washington – 55.49 (43 … 50 … 33 … 23 … 21 … 24) … has returned to current top–50
[47] Sam Houston St. – 53.67 (47 … – … – … – … 43…35) … has returned to current top–50
[49] Louisiana-Lafayette – 52.48 (49 … 35 … 29 … 22 … 18 … 17)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-5:
[34] Texas (34 … 46 … 19 … 28 … 33) … has returned to current top–50
[41] Utah (41 … 38 … 45 … – … –)
[44] Coastal Carolina (44 … 35 … 29 … 23 … 9)
[47] Charlotte (47 … 41 … – … – … –)
[48] Dallas Baptist (48 … 27 … 26 … 29 … 29)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-4:
[34] Georgia Tech (34 … 30 … 24 … 28) … later returned to top–50
[39] North Carolina State (39 … 18 … 15 … 14)
[40] Kansas State (40 … 50 … – … –)
[50] South Alabama (50 … – … 41 … –)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-3:
[32] UC Santa Barbara (32 … 30 … 23)
[36] Miami (36 … 20 … 19)
[39] Mississippi St. (39 … 34 … 32) … has returned to current top–50
[40] UCLA  (40 … 35 … 43)
[41] Virginia Tech (41 … – … –)
[44] Arizona State (44 … 37 … 34)
[48] Kent State (48 … – … –)

• Dropped Out of Top–50 After Week-2:
[27] Rice (27…#26 preseason)
[31] Florida Atlantic (31…38)
[33] UNC Wilmington (33…37)
[36] USC (36…44)
[38] Long Beach St. (38…27) … has returned to current top–50
[40] Wright St. (40…48) … has returned to current top–50
[41] South Alabama (41…–)
[42] Nebraska (42…46) … has returned to current top–50
[43] Sam Houston St. (43…35) … has returned to current top–50
[45] Maryland (45…31) … has returned to current top–50
[50] Pepperdine (50…–)

Dropped Out of CNR Top–50 After Opening Week:
[36] Tulane
[39] Gonzaga
[40] Michigan … has returned to current top–50
[45] California
[47] Oregon … has returned to current top–50
[49] Southeastern Louisiana … later returned to top–50
[50] Cal Poly